28.02.202511:49 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/CAD: Will the Pair Continue Its Rally Near Multi-Week Highs?

The USD/CAD pair remains near multi-week highs as it extends its positive momentum for the sixth consecutive day, supported by a breakout above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Spot prices reached a nearly four-week high around 1.4450–1.4455 during the Asian session, driven by renewed demand for the U.S. dollar.

Yesterday's U.S. GDP data indicated that inflationary pressures continue to rise. Coupled with concerns that President Donald Trump's policies could further fuel inflation, this reinforces expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its hawkish stance. These factors have strengthened the U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of major currencies, allowing it to recover from its two-month low and providing additional support for USD/CAD.

Meanwhile, fears over the economic impact of Trump's proposed tariffs are weighing on the Canadian dollar. The tariffs on Canada and Mexico are scheduled to take effect on March 4 as part of Trump's policy agenda, further undermining CAD's position.

Additionally, moderate declines in crude oil prices have created an additional negative backdrop for the Canadian dollar, as the currency is highly correlated with commodity markets. This further supports the bullish momentum in USD/CAD. However, traders remain cautious ahead of key U.S. inflation data.

The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, set to be released at the start of the North American session, will have a significant impact on the Fed's interest rate outlook. This data will play a key role in shaping demand for the U.S. dollar in the near term. Additionally, oil price movements could create short-term trading opportunities for USD/CAD today.

From a technical perspective, mixed oscillators on the daily chart suggest that the pair's rally may pause temporarily, allowing for a minor corrective pullback before the next directional move.