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The euro and the pound continue to rise, reaching new monthly highs each day. However, due to the overbought condition of risk assets, it is important to be extremely cautious with new long positions, as a correction could happen quickly and be significant.
Renewed demand for risk assets has been driven by talks between the U.S. and Ukraine, along with a potential 30-day freeze on hostilities. This development allowed the euro and the pound to gain strength yesterday, particularly in the latter half of the day. Investors responded positively to the prospect of de-escalation, leading to a weakening of the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset.
Nevertheless, this optimism may be short-lived, as Russia must also agree to these terms. Much will depend on the outcome of further negotiations and the actual steps taken toward conflict resolution. If the talks fail or if hostilities resume, risk assets could experience significant sell-offs.
Today, with no significant economic data being released, market attention will turn to the speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde. Expectations for a more cautious approach to interest rate cuts could lead to a rise in the euro's value. Lagarde's statements have a substantial impact on the market, and traders pay close attention to her every word, as even a slight change in her tone can cause significant currency fluctuations. Given the current economic situation in the Eurozone, any mention of a return to stricter monetary policy could bolster the euro.
There are also no major economic releases from the UK today, which allows the pound to potentially continue its upward trend, although it is currently overbought and may be due for a correction.
If economic data aligns with economists' expectations, it is advisable to use a Mean Reversion strategy. In contrast, if the data greatly exceeds or falls short of expectations, a Momentum strategy is recommended.
Buying on a breakout above 1.0917 could push the euro to 1.0950 and 1.0979.
Selling on a breakout below 1.0889 could send the euro down to 1.0838 and 1.0790.
Buying on a breakout above 1.2940 could push the pound to 1.2970 and 1.3010.
Selling on a breakout below 1.2917 could drive the pound down to 1.2875 and 1.2840.
Buying on a breakout above 148.20 could send the dollar toward 148.52 and 148.98.
Selling on a breakout below 148.05 could trigger a dollar sell-off to 147.55 and 147.18.
Look for sell opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.0926, with a return below this level.
Look for buy opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.0889, with a return above this level.
Look for sell opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.0926, with a return below this level.
Look for buy opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.0889, with a return above this level.
Look for sell opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 0.6303, with a return below this level.
Look for buy opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout below 0.6283, with a return above this level.
Look for sell opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.4457, with a return below this level.
Look for buy opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.4418, with a return above this level.
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