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The test of the 1.0908 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving up from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair gained 15 points before demand for the euro decreased.
In the second half of the day, two key inflation reports will be released in the United States: the Consumer Price Index and its core version, which excludes food and energy prices. An acceleration in inflation for February could push the Federal Reserve toward a more hawkish stance, strengthening the U.S. dollar. Conversely, a slowdown in inflation would allow the Fed to pursue a more accommodative policy.
Investors and traders closely monitor these figures, considering them critical indicators of the U.S. economy's health. The Fed's decisions on interest rates and monetary policy depend directly on these numbers. A stronger dollar, driven by rising inflation, could negatively impact emerging market currencies, pulling the euro down as well. A less aggressive Fed policy, prompted by declining inflation, could stimulate growth in risk assets, including the euro.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on executing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.
Scenario #1: Today, buying the euro is possible if the price reaches around 1.0923 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.0966. At 1.0966, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30–35 points from the entry point. The euro's growth today can be expected to continue in line with the trend. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0899 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a market reversal to the upside. Growth can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.0923 and 1.0966.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches 1.0899 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0860, where I will exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20–25 points in the opposite direction. Selling pressure on the pair may return if U.S. inflation rises sharply. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0923 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a market reversal downward. A decline can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.0899 and 1.0860.
Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before major fundamental reports are released to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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