02.04.202513:22 Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold continues to rise as investors remain concerned about U.S. President Donald Trump's aggressive trade policy and its impact on the global economy. In addition, ongoing geopolitical tensions serve as a key tailwind for the safe-haven asset. However, gold bulls should proceed with caution ahead of key tariff-related announcements.

Recent macroeconomic data from the U.S. has sparked concerns about potential stagflation. The drop in the Manufacturing PMI to 49 points to a contraction in business activity—an alarming signal for the economy. Meanwhile, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are also supporting gold demand, making the metal more attractive.

From a technical standpoint, yesterday's pullback from the all-time high stalled near the $3100 area, which is now acting as support. However, with the RSI (Relative Strength Index) residing in overbought territory, a short-term consolidation or modest retracement may be expected before positioning for further upside.

A break below the $3100 level would open the door toward the weekly low around $3076, followed by a potential move to the breakout point at $3057. The downward trajectory could extend further to $3035 support, with the psychologically important $3000 level serving as a major barrier. A drop below this key level could give bears the upper hand.

Nonetheless, the path of least resistance for the precious metal remains upward, with some consolidation likely, as long as daily chart oscillators continue to hold firmly in positive territory.