15.04.202511:52 Forex Analysis & Reviews: US market at crossroads: up or down?

Overview for April 15

US market at crossroads: up or down?

Major US indices on Monday: Dow +0.8%, NASDAQ +0.6%, S&P 500 +0.8%, S&P 500: 5,405, trading range: 5,100–5,800.

Stocks kicked off the week on a positive note.

Morning momentum pushed the S&P 500 up 1.8%, though the index ultimately closed just 0.8% above Friday's level after dipping into negative territory midday before recovering off session lows.

Investor enthusiasm was initially fueled by relief over the exemption of smartphones, laptops, semiconductors, solar panels, and other electronics from the 10% global tariff and the 125% import duty on Chinese goods. The latter half of the session lost steam as traders digested the reality: 20% fentanyl-related tariffs on Chinese imports remain in place.

Further market jitters stemmed from Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick clarifying that the exemptions are temporary, and President Trump's statement that a new tariff rate on semiconductors would be announced shortly.

Intraday swings in mega-cap stocks also contributed to the market's volatility. NVIDIA (NVDA 110.71, -0.22, -0.2%) stood out, trading as high as +3.0% intraday before dipping to -1.7% at the session low.

Ten of eleven S&P 500 sectors closed with gains. Seven ended more than 1.0% higher, with financials supported by a favorable response to Goldman Sachs' (GS 503.98, +9.54, +1.9%) quarterly earnings.

Rate-sensitive sectors such as real estate (+2.2%) and utilities (+1.8%) led the gains as Treasury yields retreated.

The 10-year yield fell by 13 basis points to 4.36%, while the 2-year yield slipped by 12 basis points to 3.83%.

Monday's macroeconomic calendar was bereft of any significant reports from the United States.

This week's calendar features March retail sales on Wednesday, followed by March housing starts and building permits on Thursday.

The European Central Bank is set to hold a meeting on Thursday, and it is widely expected to announce a 25-basis-point rate cut.

Year-to-date performance:

Dow Jones Industrial Average: -4.8%S&P 500: -8.1%S&P Midcap 400: -11.7%Nasdaq Composite: -12.8%Russell 2000: -15.7%

Looking ahead to Tuesday, market participants will be watching for:

8:30 ET: April Empire State Manufacturing (consensus -14.8; prior -20.0),March export prices (prior 0.1%), export prices ex-agriculture (prior 0.1%), import prices (prior 0.4%) and import prices ex-oil (prior 0.3%)

Energy: Brent crude is currently trading at $65.20. Oil is attempting to consolidate above the $65 level amid a modest calming in the US market.

Conclusion: The US market is gradually regaining its footing after the wild swings seen since April 2, when President Trump launched a series of punishing tariffs that rattled global trade. Despite Trump's partial retreat — a 90-day tariff pause for most countries and a temporary suspension of tariffs on electronics — a baseline 10% tariff remains in place. Moreover, the US-China trade relationship remains mired in gridlock, with both sides stuck at near-embargo levels of reciprocal tariffs. No talks are on the horizon, and each side is waiting for the other to blink first. This situation is almost certain to trigger a spike in inflation in the near term, with economic pain looming in both the US and China. Several prominent American business leaders and economists are warning of a potential US recession.

That's why we believe the US market is not on the rise but rather in a range-bound state. If the current upward move continues, it would be wise to lock in profits. However, in case of a pullback — especially in benchmarks such as the S&P 500 — we recommend going long.