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15.04.202511:55 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on April 15, 2025

This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here.

On Monday, the EUR/USD pair continued to rise but returned by the end of the day to the 261.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1318. A double rebound from this level allows traders to expect a reversal in favor of the euro and a resumption of growth toward the 323.6% Fibonacci level at 1.1456. A consolidation below 1.1318 would indicate a continuation of the decline toward the levels of 1.1240 and 1.1179.

Exchange Rates 15.04.2025 analysis

The most recent completed downward wave did not break the low of the previous one, while the new upward wave broke the previous high. This indicates that a bullish trend remains in place. Donald Trump continues to impose new tariffs on imports, maintaining an atmosphere of panic and chaos in the markets. Bulls regained control last week, and there are quite rational reasons for that.

There was no significant news background on Monday, but Donald Trump is still leaning toward further escalation of the trade war. It was reported that the White House is preparing new tariffs on semiconductors. If the bears had any intention of launching a counterattack, that intent quickly faded.

Meanwhile, China's Ministry of Commerce stated that the U.S. president's actions could provoke a global humanitarian crisis. Trump's tariffs will hurt developing countries and have already triggered a wave of uncertainty and instability worldwide. Xi Jinping, in turn, urged the European Union to join forces against Trump's trade policy. According to him, this is necessary to protect the legitimate rights and interests of all parties involved, as well as to preserve fair competition and the principles of international trade. China and the EU may well form a united front against Trump's protectionism. If that happens, the trade war could escalate to a new level, potentially causing even more damage to the U.S. economy and the dollar.

Exchange Rates 15.04.2025 analysis

On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues to rise toward the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1495. The trade war, in the full sense of the term, has only just begun. Thus, I cannot forecast growth or decline for the pair based solely on the current information. Price movements will continue to depend on the news background, which could remain intense throughout the week. The bullish trend persists. A rejection from 1.1495 would allow for a potential reversal in favor of the U.S. dollar and a possible pullback.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

Exchange Rates 15.04.2025 analysis

In the last reporting week, professional traders opened 7,049 long positions and closed 1,096 short positions. Sentiment among the non-commercial group has recently turned bullish again—thanks to Donald Trump. The total number of long positions held by speculators is now 190,000, compared to 130,000 short positions.

For 20 consecutive weeks, large players had been dumping the euro, but for the past 9 weeks, they've been reducing short positions and increasing longs. The difference in monetary policy approaches between the ECB and the Fed still favors the dollar due to the rate differential, but Trump's policies are now a stronger influence for traders. His actions could push the FOMC into a more dovish stance and even lead to a U.S. recession.

Economic Calendar for the U.S. and the EU:

  • EU – Industrial Production Change (09:00 UTC)
  • EU – ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (09:00 UTC)
  • Germany – ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (09:00 UTC)

On April 15, the economic calendar includes a few less significant releases. The influence of macroeconomic news on the market's mood will be limited on Tuesday, but any new tariff-related news could once again shake the markets.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Today, you can consider buying or selling the pair if there are clear signals around key hourly chart levels. However, once again, I emphasize that price movements will depend more on the news flow than on the chart pattern. As of Tuesday morning, there are no technical signals on the hourly chart.

Fibonacci levels:

  • Hourly chart: 1.0957–1.0733
  • 4-hour chart: 1.1214–1.0179
Samir Klishi
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025

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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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