21.03.201418:20 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 21, 2014

Long-term review

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Overview:
The USD/JPY is expected to trade with bullish bias. Liquidity was thin in Asia today as financial markets in Japan were shut for holiday. The USD/JPY is underpinned by the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 80.18 versus 80.01 early Thursday) after the Federal Reserve officials shifted forward their forecast for higher rates and Philadelphia Fed's index of general business activity rose stronger than expected to plus 9.0 in March (versus 4.3 forecast) from minus 6.3 in February, while the U.S Conference Board leading index rose more-than-expected 0.5% (versus +0.3% forecast) in February. The USD/JPY is also supported by the higher U.S. Treasury yields, reduced safe-haven appeal of yen and yen-funded carry trades as global risk sentiment improves (VIX fear gauge eased 3.97% to 14.52; S&P rose 0.6% overnight) on upbeat U.S. data and calmer investor nerves post-FOMC, loose monetary policy of the Bank of Japan and sell-yen orders from Japan importers. But the USD/JPY gains are tempered by the buy-yen orders from Japan exporters and positions' adjustment before the weekend.

Technical сomment:
The daily chart is positive-biased as stochastics is rising from oversold zone, the MACD is staging bullish crossover against its exponential moving average and rate-of-change momentum indicator is advancing in positive territory.

Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 102.85 and the second target at 103.15. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 101.20. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 100.64. The pivot point is at 101.75.

Resistance levels:
102.85
103.15
103.45

Support levels:
101.20
100.65
100.35

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