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AUD/USD is developing wave A of medium term downtrend (colored royal blue in the chart). Within this wave there are A and B subwaves (colored magenta in the chart), and subwave B is still developing from 1.0202. The immediate resistances are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0752-1.0202, and expansions off 1.0202-1.0445-1.0291.
Resistances:
- 1.0441 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0477 = .50 retracement
- 1.0534-42 = confluence area of objective point (OP) and .618 ret
- 1.0684 = expanded objective point (XOP)
If the price keeps declining the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 0.9387-1.0752, and expansions off 1.0752-1.0202-1.0445, 1.0438-1.0314-1.0426.
Supports:
- 1.0302 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0225 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0105-01 = confluence area of contracted objective point (COP) and super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 1.0070 = .50 retracement
- 0.9908 = .618 ret
- 0.9895 = objective point (OP)
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the larger wave is now moving down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (5-15 pips above the current prices) or gets into the overbought area (50-70 pips above the current prices).
Read more on how to apply Fibonacci studies to calculate price targets.
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