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Overview:
USD/JPY is expected to trade in higher range. It is underpinned by the reduced safe-haven appeal of yen and yen-funded carry trades amid positive global risk sentiment (VIX fear gauge eased 7.19% to 13.82; S&P rose 1.09% overnight) after minutes from last month's Federal Reserve policy meeting showed no signs of accelerated interest rate hikes ahead and indicated policymakers wanted to avoid the perception that the Fed is more willing to tighten monetary policy. USD/JPY also supported by demand from Japan importers and investment trusts. But USD/JPY gains are tempered by the Japan exporter sales , reduced expectations of further easing from the Bank of Japan after its policy decision Tuesday, negative USD sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 79.52 versus 79.79 early Wednesday) on dovish FOMC meeting minutes. Yen crosses are vulnerable to China March trade balance data due around 0200 GMT (forecast exports +4.2%, imports +2.8%, surplus $1.75 billion).
Technical сomment:
Daily chart is still negative-biased as MACD and stochastics are in bearish mode.
Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 101.45. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 101.20. The pivot point stands at 102.30. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from support level, and then it moves above its pivot point, it is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 102.65 and the second target at 103.
Resistance levels:
102.65
103
103.45
Support levels:
101.45
101.20
101
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