22.05.201509:24 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical analysis of USD/JPY for May 22, 2015

Long-term review

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Fundamental Overview:
USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with risks skewed lower as markets await Bank of Japan's decision on its monetary policy. USD/JPY is undermined by weaker dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 95.39 versus 95.59 early Thursday) after unexpected 3.3% fall in US April existing home sales (versus forecast for 1.0% increase), surprise decline in the Philadelphia Fed business index to 6.7 in May from 7.5 in April (versus forecast for rise to 8.3), a drop in the Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity index to -13 in May from -7 in April (versus forecast for rise to -5), an unexpected drop in Markit flash US manufacturing PMI to 53.8 in May from 54.1 in April (versus forecast for rise to 54.6), and more-than-expected 274,000 U.S. jobless claims in week ended on May 16 (versus forecast 271,000). USD/JPY is also weighed by lower US Treasury yields (10-year fell to 2.195% from 2.250%) and Japan's exports. But USD/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japan importers, reduced safe-haven appeal of the yen amid positive risk sentiment (VIX fear gauge eased 5.98% to 12.11; S&P 500 finished up 0.23% at record closing high 2,130.82 overnight) based on expectations that the Federal Reserve would hold back from the interest rate hike next month and positions adjustment ahead of the US long weekend (financial markets in U.S. are shut Monday for public holiday).

Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bullish, 5 and 15-day moving averages are advancing but stochastics is turning bearish at overbought levels, inside-day-range pattern was completed on Thursday.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 120.30. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 120. The pivot point stands at 121.15. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 121.50 and the second target at 122.

Resistance levels:
121.50
122
122.45

Support levels:
120.30
120.10
119.75

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