06.03.201311:31 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD. Forecast for March 6, 2013

Long-term review

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Yesterday the data on Composite PMI in the Euro Area and US ISM Non-Manufacturing was better than expected. The Retail Sales in the eurozone in January were better than forecast – 1.2% against 0.3%. The euro and stock markets strengthened. However, according to the recent events, Consumer Sentiment indices were strong amid weak macroeconomic data and the investors doubted whether it was reliable. Yesterday the euro grew 27 points. Today data on real sector is issued and it is expected to be weak.

At 14:00 GMT+4 GDP revised in the Euro Area in the fourth quarter is published. It is forecast to drop 0.6%. At 17:15 GMT+4 US ADP Employment Change in February is released, forecast for 170K vs. 192K in January. At 19:00 GMT+4 US Factory Orders in January is issued, forecast for -2.2% against 1.8% in December. At 23:00 GMT+4 US Beige Book will be revealed. It is obvious that there will be little optimism after it is published.

The key scenario for today is bearish. When 1.3010, the support on the H4, is broken the first target is support of the trendline on the daily chart 1.2970. The second target is 1.2922, the level of Fibonacci on the H4 314%. The rise is possible to the level of Fibonacci 236% 1.3118 and higher to the resistance of the trendline 1.3167.

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