27.03.201312:15 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD. Forcast for March 27, 2013

Long-term review

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Yesterday the markets calmed down after the head of the euro area group of finance ministers, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, spoke and the pound dropped 16 points.

Today at 13:30 GMT+4 UK Current Account in Q4 is published. It is forecast to be flat, -12.8 billion pounds. Meanwhile, UK GDP in Q4 is issued; it is expected to be flat as well, -0.3%.

It is possible that the data may be lower than forecast, then adding extra negative factor, we expect weak data on US Pending Home Sales in February (0.3% vs. 4.5%); the pound may start moving downwardly.

Technically, we expect the rate reverses from the strong area of support of highs from March 18-19 (~1.5130) and growth to the resistance of Fibonacci extension on the H4 (1.5236); if the rate consolidates above it, bullish trend continues. If the data published today is weak and the rate consolidates under 1.5130, the first target 1.5075 opens, it is the area of Fibonacci levels on the H4 161.8% and 423.6% (lower than that level, at the level of 1.5060, the support of trendline on the daily chart), the second target is 1.5037, the level of Fibonacci 138.2%.

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