02.04.201311:45 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD. Forecast for April 2, 2013

Yesterday the data on PMI Manufacturing in the US in March was released. It was worse that forecasts but the markets’ reaction was moderate. US Construction Spending was up 1.2% against expectations for 1.1%. The information from Europe and the US which has been released today was negative. Spain plans to revise down its economic GDP growth forecast for 2013 next week. Spain’s gross domestic product (GDP) will be forecast to shrink by 1% rather than 0.5%, a government source told Reuters. A federal judge ruled Monday that Stockton in California with 300,000 residents is eligible for bankruptcy protection, over the objection of creditors who argued the city could come up with more money. However, it did not have great impact on the market; it fell moderately 0.04%, the euro grew 32 points.

Today at 12:00 GMT+4 PMI Manufacturing in Eurozone in March is published; it is expected to be flat 46.6.At 13:00 GMT+4 Unemployment Rate in Eurozone in February is issued. It is expected to be 12% vs. 11.9% in January. At 18:00 GMT+4 US Factory Orders in February; it is forecast to be 2.9% vs. -2% in January. Positive news is in the US. Thus, we suppose that on Thursday on the ECB press conference Mario Draghi will resort to aggressive way of presentation.

Technically, there are prerequisites for the growth continuation; the price has reached the resistance of the indicator lines on the H4 and the first target is resistance of trendline on the level of 1.2895. The second target is the area of 1.2915/20, the resistance on the daily chart and the level of Fibonacci 314% on the H4, then 1.2965 (the lows of March 1 and 7) and 1.2995 (the high of March 18).