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On Friday, German data was weak. Trade Balance was 14.5 billion vs. forecast for 15.9 billion. Industrial production in July dropped 1.7% vs. expectations for a 0.3% drop and a 2.0% growth in June (revised downwardly from 2.4%). Only weak data on US Non-Farm Employment Change gave some hope to the investors that QE3 will not be cut from September added the euro 58 points. The information that the US Senate will vote on resolution on Syria on September 11 is very important. We suppose that the US Congress has to consider the question before the Fed’s meeting scheduled on September 17. If the US Congress has a chance to adopt the military intrusion into Syria, the question on QE3 may be considered as a solved one since September 18.
Today and tomorrow, there is no relevant macroeconomic data on Europe and the US. However, data on Japan published today was positive. Gross Domestic Product in the second quarter was 0.9% vs. 0.6%. Tomorrow data on the Retail Sales and Industrial Production is expected to be rise in China. Taking into account that on the daily chart the price reversed above the lilac trend line and on the H4 Marlin oscillator moved into positive territory, we expect short-term rise of the price until it meets the Kruzenshtern line on the H4 1.3228, the high of August 2. If the rate consolidates under 1.3158, the decline to 1.3106 is possible.
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