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Against our hypothesis about US dollar demand, the major market participants preferred to raise the euro for better distribution before the closure of quarterly currency futures in September. The rumor about the QE3 cut actively spreads, according to it if the Fed trims QE3 from September, then it will be no more than $10 billion. September’s futures are closed September 16. On Friday and on Monday strong data on the US is expected (Retail Sales and Industrial Production). On the contrary, today Industrial Production in the eurozone in July is expected to drop 0.2% vs. a 0.3% rise in June (data is to be published at 13:00 UTC+4). In the US Initial Jobless Claims are expected to grow 330K vs. 323K. Thus, it is more convenient to close currency contracts today, instead of Friday or Monday.
From the technical point of view, we expect decline after continuation of Kruzenshtern indicator line (blue sliding) o the daily chart 1.3295. The first target is 1.3270, the second is 1.3228, the high of September 2, and the third is 1.3210, support of trend line on the H4.
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