19.09.201311:56 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD. Forecast for September 19, 2013

Yesterday’s decision to keep the current bond buying program at $85 billion was considerably unexpected. However, the most surprising was the decision taken by the US Congress to preserve the situation for a long period of time having connected bond buying to the perspectives of the labour market. Taking into account the fact that the Fed has lowered the forecast for GDP for the current year from 2.3% to 2.0%, the decline in purchases of securities may start no earlier than after six months; though Ben Bernanke announced that the reduction may start this year. The main reason for that is counteraction of immediate military strike on Syria and in persistence of the US Congress to preserve the level of the national debt.

There is opinion that the sharp increase in price is connected to the fact that the investors have taken into account expected QE3 trimming for $10 billion. However, we should look at the previous events. On June 19, Bernanke said that Qe3 reduction would take place in the near future and the price dropped 630 points for three weeks. On July 10-11, the euro was bought amid the Fed’s meeting minutes and Bernanke’s commentaries that it was too early to cut the bond buying program; the price grew for 6 weeks until the chemical attack in Syria, after that it reversed to the June’s levels. At the moment the price is higher than that significant level for 100 points. It turns out that the price holds its positions on the comfortable clearly seen on the daily chart range 1.3100-1.3650. Now to get to the upper boarder of this range the price has to pass near one figure, after that reverse movement downwards is possible at least of the fact that “nothing has happened”.

On the contrary, the situation develops negatively for the euro. In Italy one more government crisis is ongoing; it may lead to resignation of Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta and new elections (decision to deprive Berlusconi of power the Senate shifted on September 30).

From the technical point of view, we expect the continuation of the euro’s growth towards the point of interjection of the level of Fibonacci 123.6% and green and blue trend lines in the area 1.3612 on the daily chart.