05.11.201311:55 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Fundamental review for November 5, 2013

After full-scale one-week attack on the euro and the British pound, which took place on Monday, the investors decided to look around. The euro grew 27 points, the pound added 43 points, and the Australian dollar rose 72 points. The correction was amid strong European, British and Australian data. PMI Construction in the UK in October was 59.4 vs. forecast for 58.9. The additional support was provided by the Confederation of British Industry, which lifted the economic outlook from 1.2% to 1.4% in 2013 and from 2.3% to 2.4% in 2014.

Sentix Investor Confidence in the Eurozone in November was 9.3 vs. expectations for 6.6 and 6.1 in October. PMI Manufacturing in the Eurozone was flat, 51.3. US Factory Orders in August was -0.1% vs. expectations for 0.2% and 1.7% in September vs. expectations for 1.9%.

Today BRC Retail Sales Monitor in October grew 0.8% annually vs. 0.7% in September. Data on UK PMI Services in October (is scheduled at 13:30 UTC+4) is estimated to be 60.4 vs. 60.3 in September; Producer Price Index in September (at 14:00 UTC+4) is expected to be grow from 0.0% to 0.3%. In the US ISM Non-Manufacturing in October is expected to drop 54.4 to 54.2. Thus, we expect continuation of the horizontal correction for the euro and the pound till tomorrow, when data on Retail Sales in the Eurozone and UK GDP outlook. 

USD/JPY.  

Yesterday it was a holiday in Japan. Today at 9:30 UTC+4  Haruhiko Kuroda, Governor of the Bank of Japan speaks. On the whole he has described the aims of the central bank in details and he would hardly say something new. On the local situation the yen is under pressure of the stock markets; at 7:30 UTC+4 Nikkei225 lost 0.16%, Shanghai Composite fell 0.6% and the Dow Jones Asia-Pacific Index dropped 0.33%. The Japanese stock market is declining due to negative outlook of car producers. Nissan Motor slashed the annual revenue forecast by 15%. In the evening the yen may be exposed to pressure caused by the declined ISM Non-Manufacturing index.

Taking it into account, that macroeconomic data in the Eurozone may be weak tomorrow and US GDP in the third quarter on Thursday, the markets will be cautious against the risky currencies. Correspondingly, the price will develop in the graphical triangle.

During the next two days we expect the drop of the price to the range 97.55/80. If there is no positive data on Thursday, the test of support of the triangle in the area 97.25 is possible.