12.10.201712:05 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Fundamental Analysis of NZD/USD for October 12, 2017

Long-term review

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NZD/USD has been making corrective bullish moves recently after breaking below the 0.71 level with a non-volatile bearish pressure. NZD has been struggling to keep up with the impulsive pressure from USD despite the recent weakness of USD due to mixed economic reports and sell-offs of the American currency. Today, New Zealand FPI report was published with a negative value at -0.2% from the previous value of 0.6% and Business NZ Manufacturing Index is yet to be published tomorrow which previously was at 57.9. NZD has been going through tougher times recently. As a result, NZD has given in to USD whereas USD is currently not in a good state fundamentally. Recently, FOMC Meeting minutes indicated divisions among Fed policymakers on the next rate hike which is expected to be in December. Moreover, on the USD side, today US CPI report is going to be published which is expected to show an increase to 0.6% from the previous value of 0.4%, Core CPI is expected to be published with an unchanged value of 0.2%, Core Retail Sales report is expected to reveal a significant increase to 0.9% from the previous value of 0.2%, and Retail Sales is also expected to show an increase to 1.7% from the negative value of -0.2%. In the forecasts, the US is expected to present some positive economic reports that is to provide USD with support. So USD is likely to extend gains against NZD. If it happens, NZD/USD is expected to take the price much lower in the coming days due to NZD weakness.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently showing some impulsive bullish pressure towards the resistance area of 0.7130-70 where the price is expected to reject with a daily close before the price proceeds lower with a target towards 0.6850. As the price progresses towards the resistance area the dynamic level, 20 EMA is also expected to act as a resistance as well. As the price remains below the resistance area, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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