07.11.201714:17 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Global macro overview for 07/11/2017

Oil rises to $57, hitting the highest level since July 2015.

The rally in oil prices is partly driven by recent reports from the OPEC as the geopolitics continues to boost price surges. As an outgrowth of an anti-corruption campaign, Saudi Arabia's powerful crown prince led a massive purge over the weekend, removing around a dozen royal cousins in a bid to consolidate power. In the result, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will now be the most powerful figure the country has seen in generations. Many analysts expect octogenarian King Salman to abdicate the throne in the coming months. Khatija Haque, head of Middle East research at Emirates NBD PJSC said: "The new leadership is committed to modernizing the economy and diversifying the economy and addressing the issue of over-reliance on oil". However, foreign investors might have a different point of view on the current situation.

Apart from the geopolitical risk, which could be helping to add a bit of bullish momentum to oil prices, the other important factor governing oil prices is the future of the OPEC oil cuts extension. With an OPEC and non-OPEC production cut extension seemingly a done deal and Nigeria indicating its support, the bullish momentum might continue its pace.

Let's now take a look at the Crude Oil technical picture at the daily time frame. The price has hit the level of $57.70 after breaking out of the bullish channel. The next technical resistance is seen on the weekly chart at the level of $62.44, but the extremely overbought market conditions might cause the price to deteriorate towards the technical support at the level of $55.26 first.