27.06.201810:03 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Global macro overview for 27/06/2018

Since Monday, the gold prices have come under selling pressure. The yellow metal rate dropped by 0.1%, and on Tuesday morning it dropped by 0.5%, going down to the lowest level since December. In this way, gold has squandered this year's profits in just over two months. Please notice, that in mid-April, an ounce of gold cost almost 1,370 dollars and was the most expensive since July 2016.

The macroeconomic reason behind this gold sell-off is seen as the consequences of central bankers' decisions. And these lately are not very beneficial for gold - at least in the short run. In June, the Federal Reserve made another interest rate increase and announced the intensification of the monetary policy normalization process. The European Central Bank may also break the policy of easy money until the end of the year. In the short run, closing the tap with easy and incredibly cheap money should lead to a decrease in the investment attractiveness of gold. After all, many bought yellow metal for fear of the effects of monetary insanity of central bankers. Now that the last ones have come to their senses and are trying to restore the pre-crisis order, gold seems less needed. Only that an attempt to normalize interest rates may end in a serious crisis and the final collapse of the current monetary system - too much has become addicted to cheap credit. And that would help gold in the long run. The thing is, however, that this shorter period may take long enough that many holders of long gold positions may not survive.

This scenario was backed up by the technical analysis. After the Friday session on the daily chart, the 50-session stepped through the top 200-session average. Technical analysts call this formation the "death cross" (there is no consensus here: different experts take other averages), supposed to herald a further sell-off. The previous "death cross" on the gold market appeared in November 2016. At that time, on the wave of optimism caused by the election of Donald Trump to the seat of the President of the United States in less than two months, dollar quotations dropped by nearly 8%. However, statistically speaking, the "death cross" is not a particularly effective formation. Yes, it sometimes precedes epic declines, but definitely more often generates incorrect or late sales signals, so no reason to panic yet, although the next important technical support is seen at the level of $1,236.