27.09.201807:58 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Global macro overview for 27/09/2018

The FOMC meeting ends with a rate hike up to 2.00-2.25$ and maintaining the current view on the prospects of the economy and the optimal shape of monetary policy. As expected, the fragment referring to the "accommodative" nature of monetary policy was removed from the statement. In that situation, the global investors expect another hike in December and uphold our expectations for the future shape of the policy, i.e. signaling the willingness to raise rates three times in 2019. Whether or not this happens is, of course, a separate issue.

The extremely transparent FOMC policy results in low volatility during press conferences, from which the market does not learn anything new or controversial. In the FOMC statement in September, information was once again given that the situation on the labor market is stable, and this represents a strong condition. The updated dot plot, ie the distribution of forecasts of individual FED members regarding the future level of interest rates shows that the vast majority believe in one more increase this year (to the range of 2.25-2.50%).

let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The EUR / USD remained in this arrangement faithful to the current range of fluctuations around 1.1750. From the point of view of quotations, it is necessary to note just unsuccessful attempts to rally above 1.18.13, the most important technical resistance level. Currently, the price has broken below the local support at the level of 1.1720 and now is heading lower towards the level of 1.1655. The weak and negative momentum indicator supports the short-term bearish outlook.