23.10.201808:12 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Global macro overview for 23/10/2018

On Monday morning it seemed that even if today's day does not end with spectacular increases, the exchanges in the world should close "in green". The main reason was to be what was happening today in China. The Shanghai Stock Exchange continued strong growth with evident support for artificial demand and closed + 4.1% higher than on Friday. Hang Seng, in turn, gained + 2.3%, but the rest of the continent, starting from Tokyo and ending in Bombay, closed neutrally.

Europe took off with positive gaps, and good levels remained until early afternoon. Among the pretexts mentioned was the lack of rating of junk rating by Moody's and allegedly conciliatory tone of the local finance minister, who said that his country is not planning to further deepen the deficit in 2020 and 2021, but will not give up its next year's proposals. It can be added to the comments of Prime Minister Conte and Deputy Prime Minister Di Maio that Italy is not planning to leave the Eurozone, but fundamentally they do not change anything. The government is still going to increase its debt. Milan FTSE MiB opened the most from the indexes on the continent, currently loses -0.3% and is near the end of the rate.

SP500 and DJIA are fighting the level of Friday's close, Nasdaq has recorded a clear rise (+ 0.8%) despite the negative opening. The New York Stock Exchange is entering the key moment of this result season. The most interesting day will probably be Friday, on Thursday after the session their reports will be published by Alphabet (Google) and Amazon, as well as over 200 other companies.

Let's now take a look at the SP500 technical picture at the H4 time frame. From a technical point of view, unfortunately, there are many more reasons for the continuation of declines than their quick ending, the key question is whether it will be possible to protect the support zone between the October lows and the level of 270.32 points. So far the market has managed to bounce a little towards the level of 277, but the bounce is too weak so far and the bears are preparing for another test of the intraday support at the level of 273.94. Any breakout lower would mean the level of 272.37 will be hit next. Please notice, that weak and negative momentum supports the short-term bearish bias.