19.11.201818:52 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Global macro overview for 19/11/2018

Gold, widely perceived as a safe haven for restless times, is gaining in uncertainty on world markets. The specter of the global recession is getting more serious, and there is growing concern about the effects of Brexit and the provisions of the agreement between Great Britain and the European Union, which is to regulate the principles of cooperation after the United Kingdom leaves the community. The contract draft presented by Prime Minister Theresa May aroused considerable controversy, which only intensified fears related to Brexit, pulling European stock markets down and at the same time being support for gold.

There is also restlessness in the USA. After the Democratic Party won the election to the House of Representatives, which means taking over from the Republicans control at the lower house of the American Congress, it becomes more and more realistic to initiate investigations in cases in which Donald Trump is involved. It includes about the so-called Russiagate, or interference of the Russians in the presidential election in the US in 2016.

Moreover, as far as the condition of the American economy is concerned, Jerome Powell, head of the US Federal Reserve, admitted that, while the situation is under control, he sees potential threats to further growth. This also translates into market forecasts regarding subsequent interest rate hikes in the US. Although the December hike is basically a foregone conclusion, investors have lowered their expectations for increases in 2019. And according to many analysts, easing the hawkish Fed policy is exactly what gold needs to start a price rally.

Let's now take a look at the Gold technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has bounced from the level of $1,196 and is heading towards the technical resistnace zone at the level of $1,235 - $1,247, just below the 38% Fibo retracement. The market conditions are now neutral, so the move up might be limithed to this zone.