29.11.201809:22 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Global macro overview for 29/11/2018

President Trump is not happy with how the Fed's policy is run by Chairman Powell, whom he himself appointed and now regrets. What seems more important, however, is the justification of his opinion. Well, Trump "has a hunch" that sometimes tells him more than the "minds" of others. It is difficult to argue with this and focus better on the Fed and Powell criticism. This time we are not dealing with a frivolous statement during a charity dinner, but with an authorized interview for the national newspaper. The words are well thought out and show how aware Trump's dissatisfaction with interest rate increases. In the future, we will probably hear more criticism that may be a source of market turbulence or fuel nervousness during times of sentiment deterioration. On the other hand, Trump has no power to change the Fed's policy and Powell's appeal. In addition, the Fed cultivates its independence, and in decisions, cultivates a conscientious calculation of economic factors. No analyst on the market can imagine that the Fed would be under pressure from Trump. This is important in the context of today's President Powell speech. Powell will remain unaffected by criticism and will repeat the Fed's attitude to the slow pace of interest rate increases. His statement should not differ much from yesterday's words of Deputy President Clarida, in which the pace of increases remains dependent on incoming data, and monitoring the economic situation has become more and more important when the Fed approaches the neutral interest rate. The December hike is decided and the market may speculate whether and when the Fed will decide to pause in the hike plan every quarter. The USD will remain the most sensitive on this issue.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market failed to break through the swing high at the level of 97.70 and reversed. The price has reached the technical support at the level of 97.20 and is currently trading around the lower technical support at the level of 96.67. If this support is broken, then the next target for bulls is seen at the level of 96.22, just above the trend line support. Please notice the weak momentum supports the bearish outlook.