30.01.201909:27 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Trading plan for 30/01/2019

Trading plan for 30/01/2019:

Investors are waiting for the decision of the FOMC and the start of talks between the US and China, and in the meantime, the attention was focused on inflation data from Australia and Brexit negotiations.

The rest of the currency market is relatively stable in anticipation of the FOMC's evening decision and the first press conference of Fed Chairman J. Powell. The new round of US-China trade negotiations in Washington is also in focus.EUR / USD remains at 1.1430 and USD / JPY is around 109.25.

Nothing new on the Asian stock markets: Chinese Shanghai Composite loses 0.6 percent, and Japanese Nikkei225 fell 0.5 percent. There is no sign of any special trend.Gold made another day of increases and approaches to 1314 USD because the retention of USD and lower yields of US debt encourage a change to invest in the yellow metal.

On Wednesday, the 30th of January, the event of the day is the FOMC Interest Rate decision, together with FOMC Statement and FOMC Press Conference. The other important events are GDP and ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data release from the US, CPI data release from Germany and KOF Economic Barometer data release from Switzerland.

AUD/USD analysis for 30/01/2019:

In Australia, CPI inflation for the fourth quarter was 0.5% q/q, but the market participants expected 0.4% q/q figure. On the yearly basis, CPI was released at the level of 1.8% against the expected number of 1.7%.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market positioned itself for a weaker reading, so the data triggered an escape from short positions and AUD / USD approached 0.7200 level. So far, the bulls are too weak to break through this level, due to the trend line resistance (marked in orange) and bearish divergence building between the price and the momentum indicator. If the bulls will fail to break out higher, the nearest technical support is seen at the level of 0.7178. The key technical support is the zone between the levels of 0.7139 - 0.7144 and only a sustained breakout below this zone would change the mid-term outlook to more bearish.

On the other hand, the nearest technical resistance is a wall built at the levels of 0.7214, 0.7221, 0.7225 and 0.7234 (swing high). It will take a great effort to break through this wall of resistance.

Trading recommendations:

If the bulls will fail to break through the resistance at the level of 0.7204, then short orders should be in play with the targets set at the level of 0.7178 (TP1 for the intraday traders) and 0.7144 (TP2 for the intraday traders).