05.02.201908:50 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Trading plan for 05/02/2019

Trading plan for 05/02/2019:

On Tuesday, the 5th of February, the event calendar is light in important data releases, but the global investors should keep an eye on the PMI Services and Composite PMI being released from Germany, France, Spain, Italy, the UK, and the Eurozone itself. During the US session, the only interesting data release is ISM Non-Manufacturing data for the last month. No speeches are scheduled for today.

AUD/USD analysis for 05/02/2019:

The Reserve Bank of Australia has decided to maintain the current interest rate at the level of 1.50% as expected. In the Monetary Policy Statement, the forecast growth has been revised down from 3.25% to 3.0% for 2019, and 2020, from 3.0% to "a little less" due to slower growth in exports of resources. The inflation forecasts were also revised with the underlying inflation forecast for 2019 reduced from 2.25% to 2.0%, while the 2020 forecast remains at 2.25%. With all these down revisions the RBA remains confident, but it is clearly less comfortable with its previous positive outlook for 2019.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has broken above the technical resistance zone at the level of 0.7204 - 0.7234 and made a new high at the level of 0.7296. After the Shooting Star candlestick pattern was made the price declined towards the recently broken technical resistance (now support) and tested id from above. After the RBA data, the price spiked higher again and made a new local high at the level of 0.7264, but this high was made outside of the corrective upward channel. Moreover, there is a short-term trend line dynamic resistance that is preventing the bulls from rally continuation. The momentum remains positive, but only because the spike up on news was made, otherwise the price would continue the down move.

Trading recommendations:

Due to the fact the price has fallen out of the channel, the sell order should be opened as close as possible to the level of 0.7264 with a protective stop loss order placed above the recent swing high. The targets for shorts are seen at the levels of 0.7225 and 0.7195. The other targets are seen at 0.7180 and 0.7144.