17.05.201907:22 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Analysis of USD/CHF for May 17, 2019: USD to sustain bullish momentum

USD/CHF has bounced off the 1.0050 support area with a daily close recently, but the bearish pressure is still sustained which might result in further corrections and consolidation in the process.

Recently, the US building permits report showed an increase to 1.30M which was expected to be unchanged at 1.29M. Further on, the housing starts increased to an annual rate of 1.24 million last month above the expectations of MarketWatch for a rise of 1.21 million. Besides, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index rose to a four-month high of 16.6 in May after registering 8.5 in April.

Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard made the case on that the "new norm" of low interest rates requires the central bank to let the inflation run hotter than usual. Separately, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the Fed treated the 2% inflation target as a ceiling instead of a target and low inflation expectations are sapping the Federal Reserve's ability to respond to a future downturn. Traders of short-term interest-rate futures, by contrast, are betting the Fed will need to cut rates later this year to combat an economic slowdown.

Today, the US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 97.8 from the previous figure of 97.2. Besides, the CB leading index is expected to decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.4% and FOMC Member Clarida is going to speak about the future monetary policy which is expected to have neutral impact on USD.

On the CHF side, this week Switzerland's PPI report was published with a decrease to 0.0% from the previous value of 0.3% which was expected to be at 0.2%. At the same time, the consumer price index increased to 0.2% from 0.5% in March 2019 compared with the previous month. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 2.4% while youth unemployment decreased. The SNB compares price stability with a rise in the national consumer price index of less than 2% per annum. At its latest meeting, the SNB reduced the inflation target of the current year to 0.3%, from 0.5% of the previous year while the expected inflation targets for 2020 was set at 0.6% compared to 1.0% for the last quarter of 2021. According to the SNB, the economic indicators are currently pointing to moderately positive momentum which makes the bank's analysts expect the GDP to expand by around 1.5.

As of the current scenario, USD is stronger than CHF currently, whereas US-China trade war and weak economic reports are making it quite hard for USD to sustain the bullish momentum. So, corrections may take place, but a strong upward thrust above may lead to a continuation of the bullish trend.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing below 1.0130 resistance area with certain indecision and consolidation. A break above 1.0130 area is required for further upward momentum which would not only break above the horizontal level but also the dynamic level of 20 EMA. As the price remains above 1.00 support area with a daily close, continuation of the upward pressure is expected.