28.05.201906:49 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: USD/JPY to gain momentum ahead US GDP Data? May 28, 2019

The USD/JPY pair has been volatile residing below 110.00 area with a daily close. Though certain bullish pressure was observed yesterday but it was not sufficient enough to call for deeper pullbacks.

The US durable goods orders fell -2.1% during April. The Orders have been influenced by volatile aircraft orders in recent months, and this was again the case. The core capex orders conjointly slipped 0.9%, and have slowed to 2.5% year-over-year. Overall, producing activity ought to still be subdued in returning months among sharp trade contacts and slow world growth. Home sales index has fallen during April. The Preliminary GDP of the USA is expected to be published this. The previous reading was 3.2%. Economists expect a decrease to 3.1%. The pending home sales index is also expected to drop from 3.8% to 0.9% while personal spending is expected to fall from 0.9% to 0.2%. The trade tension has been the most important factor that hammers the economic growth of U.S. China is expected to raise tariffs on $60 billion in US imports in retaliation for the US decision to increase duties on Chinese imports, escalating a trade war between the world's two largest economies that threatens to damage the global economy.

Japan's Gross Domestic Product was impressive at first glance, with Japan's economy growing 2.1% quarter-over-quarter annualized. Household spending has fallen at a 0.4% pace and business investment constricted at a 1.2% pace. In Japan's Domestic Sector, the main sources of strength were a residential and public investment. The key mover behind the headline growth figures was the large 17.2% quarter-over-quarter annualized fall in imports, an indicator of still subdued domestic demand. Although the consumer spending growing moderately the government is still on track to raise the consumption tax in October 2019.

Today, the Japanese SPPI report was published. It indicated a fall to 0.9% from 1.1%. The BOJ Core CPI report is about to be published. The previous figure was 0.5%.This week, Tokyo core CPI will be published along with the Speech of BOJ Governor. Japan's Unemployment Rate report is going to be released as well. Analysts anticipate a decrease to 2.4% from 2.5%.

The publication of the US GDP data and its upbeat results might create bullish momentum in the USD/JPY pair. Volatility is also expected in this pair due to the trade war between China and the US.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price managed to push higher after pushing lower towards 109.20 support area which is expected to lead the price towards the dynamic level resistance of 20 EMA which resides at 110.00 area. The price has successfully formed Bullish Regular Divergence. As the price remains below 110.50 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue but a certain pullback is likely to occur.