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The euro managed to assert strength against the greenback residing above the 1.1300 area with a daily close. The weak NFP report supported the gains of the euro. Nevertheless, the Eurozone economy continues to shrink.
A global trade war is unlikely to subside economic growth. Additionally, the European Central Bank is ready to use any of its instruments to prop up confidence and growth in the currency bloc. The ECB last week gave the Eurozone a fresh boost with cheap funding for banks while ECB President Mario Draghi stated that the bank was ready to consider a wider range of measures to prop up inflation, which has undershot the ECB's target since 2013.
With interest rates below zero, banks increasingly complain that ECB policy is hurting their profitability to the extent that it is hampering the flow of credit and thus transmission of its easy policy. The ECB now sees rates steady at least through the first half of 2020, having pushed back any move several times already. Moreover, the Eurozone Unemployment rate has shown an improvement from 7.7% to 7.6% where the Spanish Unemployment change decreased from -91.5K to -84.1K. The core CPI Estimate has been decreased from 1.3% to 0.8% on a yearly basis where the French Industrial Production increased from -1.1% to 0.4%. The French Final CPI is expected to be unchanged at 0.2% along with the German CPI.
On the other hand, the US economy has weakened amid worse economic data such as Non-Farm Employment Change. The reading decreased significantly to 75k from 224k which was expected to be at 177k. Average Hourly Earnings and Unemployment Change remained unchanged. Market expectations for a Fed rate cut in June rose to 27.5% from 16.7% after the jobs data release, according to the CME Group's Fed Watch. The market participants are curious about the Fed's decision on key rate reduction in July. The major US equity indexes posted strong gains last week as weaker than expected economic data increased the odds of easier monetary policy from the Federal Reserve.
Bond traders expect that the Federal Reserve will start slashing interest rates within months and the trade deal between the U.S. and Mexico has barely put a dent in that view. The tension between Mexico and America has eased, concern about the trade fight between the U.S. and China continues to weigh on investor confidence.
Today US PPI report is going to be published. The reading is expected to drop to 0.1% from 0.2%. Core PPI is expected to rise to 0.2% from 0.1%.
As of the current scenario, further correction is expected in this pair. The euro has greater chances to sustain gains over the US dollar as the US economy has been undermined by trade war tensions and weak economic reports.
Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing above the 1.1300 area with a daily close. Certain indecision bar closed yesterday with a daily candle inside the impulsive bullish breakout bar. The price is currently residing apart from the Mean, which is expected to revert to a dynamic level of 20 EMA before proceeding further upward. As the price remains above 1.1200 area with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue with the target towards 1.1450-1.1500 area.
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