06.04.202007:59 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: EUR/USD Setting Up For Reversal

EUR/USD has bounced back and now is pressuring a strong dynamic resistance, a valid breakout will validate a reversal on the short term. The pair maintains a bearish bias for now, that's why we need a confirmation that it could turn to the upside. EUR/USD has rebounded as the USDX has slipped lower, a Dollar Index drop will send the currency pair higher.

The price has resumed the sell-off on Friday despite the poor NFP report, the indicator has dropped to -701K, much below the -100k estimate, while the Unemployment Rate has increased unexpectedly from 3.5% to 4.4%, jumping above the 3.8% estimate. These are only some of the COVID-19 effects that could send the US economy into crisis if this pandemic will continue. The dollar was saved on the short term by the Average Hourly Earnings which it has increased by 0.4%, the Financial Services PMI was reported at 39.8 points, beating the 38.7 forecasts, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI has remained in the positive territory, signaling only an expansion slowdown and not a contraction.

EUR/USD has increased, but you should know that the bearish pressure is still high as long as the price is traded below the upper median line (uml) of the descending pitchfork and below the outside sliding line (sl), a false breakout above these two dynamic obstacles will confirm a further downside movement.

Only a valid breakout above the outside sliding parallel line (sl - descending dotted line) will validate a short-term reversal. MACD and Stochastic indicators are showing a bullish divergence according to the H1 chart, while the failure to reach and retest the median line (ml) signal an oversold and a potential bullish momentum.

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We may have a great buying opportunity if the price will close and will stabilize above the 61.8% retracement level and above the descending dotted line (sl). So, a valid breakout will bring another long opportunity, the upside targets are seen at the 50% and 38.2% levels. The Stop Loss should be placed below the 1.0772.

You should be ready for another drop if EUR/USD will register only a false breakout above the upper median line (uml), above the 61.8% retracement level and above the sliding line (sl). A false breakout with a great separation or a bearish engulfing will bring a short opportunity because the price will remain in the seller's territory and below major resistance levels. The major downside target remains at the median line (ml).