15.02.201908:29 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Forecast for USD/JPY on February 15, 2019

USD/JPY

On Thursday, the markets caught up with several very alarming events; Donald Trump's intention to declare a state of emergency immediately after signing the budget for the current year, which does not provide for the construction of the border wall with Mexico, the refusal of the British Parliament to postpone the country's exit from the EU for three months, weak data on the US economy: retail sales decreased by 1.2% in December, the producer price index showed -0.1% in January, inventories of companies decreased by -0.1% against expectations of an increase of 0.3%. This morning, the consumer price index in China in the January estimate dropped from 1.9% y/y to 1.7% y/y. As a result, the yen, being a safe haven currency, strengthened by 54 points against the dollar.

At the moment, the price of USD/JPY has reached the point of coincidence of the balance lines and the Krusenstern on the four-hour chart. On the daily chart, the price is supported by the embedded trend line of the price channel. On H4 there is a price divergence with the Marlin indicator, and whether the potential of the market for this pattern has dried up is, of course, unknown. A consolidation below 110.30 will make it possible for the price to fall to the support of the upward line of the price channel on the daily chart at 109.65, which is also the lower limit of the range of February 4-8. We can speak about the resumption of growth only after the Marlin signal line reaches the zone of positive numbers on the four-hour chart, which is possible on the price chart with the yen above 110.65. The growth target is still the same - 111.24.