20.02.201910:02 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: EUR / USD. February 20th. The trading system. "Regression Channels". The only event of the day - the Fed protocol

4-hour timeframe

Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

The junior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: 127.3110

The EUR / USD currency pair with great difficulty fixed above the moving average line and completed the Murray level of "2/8" - 1.1353. From a fundamental point of view, the growth potential of the European currency is at that exhausted. However, taking into account the fact that the pair failed from three attempts to overcome the important and strong support area of 1.1250 - 1.1290, we can assume that the strengthening of the euro can continue based on technical factors. Thus, for further upward movement, the pair will need to overcome the level of 1.1353. To date, February 20, not a single significant publication has been planned again. Only in the States will the report of the last Fed meeting be published late in the evening. However, as is almost always the case, this report does not contain fundamentally new information, therefore, the reaction to it in most cases is absent. However, this report is not recommended to be overlooked. At the same time, there is another important question to which the market would like to receive an answer. Will the Fed complete the reduction program? Earlier, it was repeatedly discussed that the Fed is completing the course on a systematic increase in the key rate, and therefore the question arises about the balance of the Fed. If any signals are received about the completion of this program or a reduction in its pace, this will be a negative point for the US dollar.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1292

S2 - 1.1230

S3 - 1.1169

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1353

R2 - 1.1414

R3 - 1.1475

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair broke the moving and completed the level of 1.1353. Thus, in the case of overcoming the first target, long positions with a target of 1.1414 will be relevant.

It is recommended to return to sell orders no earlier than price fixing below the moving average line. In this case, the tendency for the instrument to change is downward, and the target will be 1.1230.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.