16.04.201909:51 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: EURUSD: Euro buyers need to work hard to maintain the uptrend

Yesterday, the euro expectedly fell against the US dollar against the background of the lack of important statistics, but buyers of risky assets still have a chance to resume the upward trend.

In the afternoon, a report was published on manufacturers in the area of responsibility of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which led to a slight strengthening of the US dollar by accelerating business growth.

According to the Fed-New York, the manufacturing index, which reflects the conditions for doing business, rose to 10.1 points in April of this year, while economists had expected the index in April to be 5.3 points. More than 33% of respondents reported improved business conditions. The index of new orders reached 7.5 points, while the employment index dropped to 11.9 points.

Yesterday's speeches of the Fed representatives did not have much impact on the US dollar.

Fed spokesman Charles Evans said that the rate hike is still possible if the economy meets expectations, but a weaker state may even require a weakening of the current monetary policy. Evans also expects inflation to reach 2% in the medium term. In his opinion, the economy will slow down to 1.75% -2% this year, since the downside economic risks outweigh the upside.

The speech of the President of the Fed-Boston Rosengren was also ignored by the market. He again repeated that he was open to the Fed to change the target range for inflation, which plays a certain role in the ceiling. In his opinion, in good economic periods, you can change the target range above 2%.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, the chart continues to show the formation of the upper limit of the new downward channel, so it is very problematic to talk about the further growth of the euro. Only a confident consolidation above the resistance of 1.1315 will return the upward momentum to risky assets, which will lead to a test of new weekly highs around 1.1360 and 1.1390. The downward movement in euros, which may be formed at the beginning of this week, will be restrained by the levels of 1.1280 and 1.1255.

The Canadian dollar collapsed against the US dollar and continues to remain under pressure after the publication of yesterday's survey of the Bank of Canada, which revised its forecasts and views on the economic situation.

The report indicates that the mood in the business community has deteriorated slightly, as well as expectations regarding sales. There has been a slowdown in demand for companies associated with the housing market and energy sector, and trade conflicts and geopolitical tensions remain a risk to the economy, putting pressure on exporters' prospects.

The Bank of Canada also noted that inflation expectations have decreased, but remain in the range of 1% -3% in the medium term.