24.04.201909:31 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: EURUSD: Eurozone consumer confidence falls again, which is a bad signal

Yesterday, a good report on new home sales in the US provided significant support to the US dollar, which strengthened against a number of world currencies, and weak consumer confidence in the eurozone only increased the pressure on the euro.

According to the US Department of Commerce, sales of new homes in March 2019 increased by 4.5% and amounted to 692,000 homes per year. Economists, on the contrary, expected sales to fall by 2.5%. Compared to the same period of the previous year, sales increased by 3.0%.

The increase in sales indicates the excellent state of the real estate market in the United States, even at current interest rates. However, recent data on the number of new home mortgages and building permits declined in March, which indicates a still weakness in housing construction.

A report from Retail Economist-Goldman Sachs did not put pressure on the US dollar, despite the fact that sales in US retail chains declined during the reporting week. According to the data, during the week from April 14 to April 20, sales fell by 1.4% compared with the previous week. It happened mainly due to rainy weather. The retail sales index for the week increased by 1.4% compared to the same period of the previous year.

Yesterday, a report was published showing that eurozone consumers were less optimistic about their future in April 2019. The report of the European Commission stated that the preliminary index of consumer confidence in the eurozone in April 2019 fell sharply to -7.9 points against -7.2 points in March. Let me remind you that growth has been observed over the past three months. Economists had expected the index to rise in April as well, due to lower unemployment and rising wages.

Yesterday, a report by the EU statistics agency was published, in which it was stated that the cumulative eurozone budget deficit in 2018 amounted to 0.5% of the region's GDP, against 1% of GDP in 2017. This suggests that the eurozone continues to get rid of its debt burden.

However, not all EU member states follow this path. For example, the Italian government plans to increase the volume of borrowing in 2019 to stimulate economic growth.

According to the data, the total amount of outstanding loans in 2018 decreased to 85.1% of GDP from 87.1% in 2017, but the level of debt remains above the pre-crisis 65%. In 2018, eight of the 19 eurozone countries reduced the budget with a surplus.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, after yesterday's decline, the bulls will try to keep above the support level of 1.1200, which may form a new upward correction and lead to the return of the trading instrument to the level of 1.1250. The break of 1.1200 will only increase the pressure on risky assets and will lead to the renewal of the minimum 1.1150.