15.05.201909:50 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: EURUSD: Trump is preparing new duties on the US, and the euro is preparing for a further decline

Yesterday, US President Donald Trump made another series of statements related to trade relations between the US and China. During his speech, Trump drew attention to the fact that the US had only minor disagreements with China, and the parties were very close to the deal. However, at some point, the Chinese authorities tore it down. Trump also said that he was very surprised by the response from China and that now the presidential administration is seriously considering the possibility of imposing additional duties. We are talking about additional fees in the amount of 300 billion US dollars.

In the meantime, markets are responding to the new trade conflict calmly enough, and there is no sharp demand for safe-haven assets. As for the absence of a larger demand for the US dollar, it can be assumed that investors tend to buy bonds, the yield on which has recently continued to decline. The demand for bonds is directly related to expectations of a lower rate by the Federal Reserve System.

Yesterday's data did not provide significant support to the US dollar, as the growth of inflation expectations may slow down in the future.

According to the report, prices for foreign goods imported into the United States showed the lowest growth in April of this year. According to the US Department of Commerce, import prices in April 2019 increased by 0.2% compared with the previous month, while economists had expected prices to rise by 0.6%. Compared to the same period of the previous year, import prices fell by 0.2%.

Retail sales in the US, according to the Redbook, for the first week of May this year increased by 1.3% and 5.4% compared to the same period in 2018. Today, a general report on US retail sales is expected, which can support the US dollar. However, economists forecast an increase of only 0.2% after a 1.6% increase in March.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, it is likely that the bearish nature of the market will continue, as the bears made their way below the support of 1.1220 yesterday. Their main goal for today will be to the test the lows of 1.1180 and 1.1140.

The British pound continues to decline after yesterday's report, which showed that the unemployment rate in the UK decreased in the 1st quarter of 2019, but the growth in average earnings slowed down.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to March of this year, the unemployment rate in the UK fell to 3.8% from 3.9% from December to February. The average earnings for the same period increased by only 3.3% compared with the same period last year, after rising by 3.4%.

Given the growth of uncertainty with Brexit, which will increasingly have a negative impact on the economy, the pressure on the pound will continue. Only positive results on the agreements reached on Brexit between the two leading parties of the UK will return the demand for the British pound in the short term.