24.05.201910:29 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: We waited for a rebound (a review of EUR / USD and GBP / USD on 05/24/2019)

You should never forget about the overbought or oversold of a particular currency, especially when it comes to the dollar. The longer the correction is delayed, the stronger and more unexpected the rebound. That is exactly what happened yesterday. At first, the dollar continued to grow steadily, supported by weak and rather strange preliminary data on European business activity indices. In particular, the composite index of business activity rose from 51.5 to 51.6, while they expected growth to 51.7. However, as a composite index could grow, it remains a mystery. The fact is that the business activity index in the service sector has decreased from 52.8 to 52.2, and the production index from 47.9 to 47.7. So it is completely incomprehensible how something can increase if all its component parts have decreased. Apparently, this is some kind of new European mathematics. But shortly before as similar data for the United States should have been published, the dollar began to grow at an incredible rate. Like someone knew something. And as soon as the data was published, this spring, which was compressed for nearly two weeks in a row, fired so that a little more - and one could see the stratosphere. After all, the business activity index in the manufacturing sector decreased from 52.6 to 50.6, and in the services sector from 53.0 to 50.9, which led to a decrease in the composite index of business activity from 53.0 to 50.9. A little later, the data on sales of new homes has already decreased by 6.9%, which only heightened negative emotions. It is also noteworthy that the market tritely ignored data on applications for unemployment benefits, the total number of which increased by 13 thousand. But they went out to business activity indices and sales of new homes. This happened due to an increase of 14 thousand in the number of repeated applications for unemployment benefits. Also, the number of initial applications decreased by 1 thousand. Apparently, it is time for Markit to seriously think about internal security and to check his employees for friendly gatherings with the Wall Street guys.

Theresa May's resignation is expected on June 10. After all, in fact, the British Prime Minister has no other choice, since she even understands that for the fourth time, the version of the "divorce" agreement with the European Union that she proposes will be rejected. And this time, perhaps, with a crushing score, for even the general provisions of this very agreement are completely rejected by both the conservatives and the laborers. Moreover, her own partners in the Conservative Party gently hinted that it would be better to leave in a good way, otherwise she would be asked to leave the office of the prime minister. In short, what happened was not quite scandalous. In any case, it is obvious that Brexit will have to deal with her changer, and there will be no definite time for any negotiations with Europe, which, moreover, has made it clear that there will be no more negotiations and changes to the proposed version of the agreement. Therefore, someone else will be responsible for the unregulated Brexit, with all its remarkable implications for the economy of the United Kingdom. But the concern is not only this endless political booth, but also the real state of affairs. Indeed, in the UK, retail sales data is also published, the growth rate of which should slow down from 6.7% to 4.6%. So the dollar has a reason for growth not only because of the uncertainty that awaits Europe in the event of an unregulated Brexit, but also because of weak British statistics. However, it will not be too long to rejoice.

Thus, the single European currency is likely to be waited first by a decline to 1.1150, followed by a return to 1.1200.

The scenario for the pound is about the same, and first we are waiting for a decline to 1.2625, and then a return to 1.2675.