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4-hour timeframe
Technical data:
The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.
The lower linear regression channel: direction – down.
The moving average (20; smoothed) – sideways.
CCI: 50.3164
The British pound continues to trade slightly above the moving average line, showing the weakness of the bulls. Recently, traders often discuss candidates for the post of Prime Minister of the country, as today Theresa May leaves the post of leader of the Conservative Party, and on June 12, the first round of elections of the Prime Minister will begin. However, in the context of Brexit, the change of the leader of Great Britain may not affect the situation with the country's withdrawal from the European Union. Brexit options, in fact, remain the same: Theresa May's "deal", "hard" Brexit, rejection of Brexit, a new referendum. May's "deal" and "hard" Brexit Parliament would block voting. Thus, the new Prime Minister will not be able to change the mood of the Parliament and will not be able to change and finalize May's "deal", as the European Union refuses to change and make adjustments to the current agreement. Accordingly, it is the second referendum or a change of government, that is. new parliamentary elections. Thus, in principle, it is not even very important who will become the new Prime Minister. The European Union also seems to understand this and has already announced its intention to extend the Brexit deadline until June 2020. At the same time, the candidate for Prime Minister Jeremy Hunt believes that new negotiations with the EU and a new agreement are needed. Boris Johnson is ready to leave the EU without any agreements.
Nearest support levels:
S1 – 1.2665
S2 – 1.2634
S3 – 1.2604
Nearest resistance levels:
R1 – 1.2695
R2 – 1.2726
R3 – 1.2756
Trading recommendations:
The GBP/USD pair has started a new round of downward correction, which in the next few days may grow into a new downward trend. Thus, the purchase of the pound in small lots with the targets at 1.2726 and 1.2756 formally remains relevant now if the pair rebounds from the MA.
It is recommended to buy the US dollar after fixing the pound/dollar pair below the moving average line with the targets at 1.2604 and 1.2573. In this case, the bears will again take over the initiative on the currency market for GBP/USD.
In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
Explanation of illustrations:
The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.
The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.
CCI – the blue line in the indicator regression window.
The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.
Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.
Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.
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