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EUR/USD – 4H.
As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD has completed the consolidation under the retracement level of 38.2% (1.1238) and generally continues the process of falling towards the correctional level of 23.6% (1.1187). Yesterday, as of today, there was no news from Europe or America. It is because of this that the activity of traders decreased, but already today a series of speeches by Fed Chairman Powell in the US Congress will begin. They will deal with a semi-annual report on the state of the US economy, its prospects, as well as monetary policy. The most interesting thing is that this report was clearly formed taking into account the weak June economic indicators, but whether it will get a strong Nonfarm Payrolls last Friday? It is Powell's rhetoric this week that will help determine whether the Fed believes that there is a recession in the country, a deterioration in economic indicators and that this is a trend, not an accident. It is the answers to these questions that allow us to make a forecast about the Fed's readiness to reduce the rate in the coming months or, on the contrary, to leave monetary policy unchanged. Also, the future decision of the Fed will affect the development of negotiations between China and the United States, but there is currently no new information on the topic of a trade war.
The Fibo grid is built on extremums from March 20, 2019, and May 23, 2019.
Forecast for EUR/USD and trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD pair performed a consolidation below the correction level of 38.2% (1.1238). I recommend selling the pair with the target at 1.1187, with the stop-loss order above the level of 1.1238. I recommend buying the pair with the target at 1.1278 if the closing above the Fibo level is 38.2% and with the stop-loss order below the level of 1.1238.
GBP/USD – 4H.
The GBP/USD pair also continues to fall in the direction of the Fibo level of 100.0% (1.2437). There is very little news from the UK now. The country is waiting for the name of the new Prime Minister to become known, and this will happen not earlier than July 23, when the votes of all members of the Conservative Party will be counted. And what about this moment? Until then, traders are advised not to expect positive news from the UK. Now, only negative statistics from America or weak performances of Powell and other members of the Fed can help the pound sterling. The more signs that members of the Fed's monetary committee are ready to reduce the rate, the more chances there will be for the pound to grow (as well as the euro). What opinion Powell holds, we will begin to find out today. Interesting data from the UK is expected tomorrow. It will be on July 10 that reports on GDP and industrial production will be released. GDP forecasts predict a decline, which, in principle, is not surprising. Tomorrow, the next performance by Jerome Powell will also take place, so today or tomorrow will be very important for the pound/dollar currency pair. The rebound of the pair from the Fibo level of 100.0% will allow counting on a reversal in favor of the English currency and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 76.4%. Closing the pair below the Fibo level of 100.0% will increase the chances of a further fall in the direction of the next correction level of 127.2% (1.2185).
The Fibo grid is built on the extremes of January 3, 2019, and March 13, 2019.
GBP/USD – 1H.
As seen on the hourly chart, the pound/dollar pair performed the third fall to the correction level of 100.0% (1.2437). All three times, the rebound from this Fibo level was performed, but no growth of the pair was observed. Thus, closing the quotes below the correction level will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the pound and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 76.4% (1.2571).
The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of June 18, 2019, and June 25, 2019.
Forecast for GBP/USD and trading recommendations:
The currency pair GBP/USD closed above the Fibo level of 100.0%. I recommend buying the pair with the target at 1.2571, with stop-loss order below the level of 1.2506, but in very small amounts, or not buying at all, given the current mood of the market. I recommend selling the pair with the target at 1.2430 if the consolidation is performed under the Fibo level of 100.0% and with the stop-loss level order above the level of 1.2506 (hour chart).
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