29.08.201916:09 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: GBP/USD. Opinion: what is happening in British politics?

For the first two years after the 2016 referendum, London held constructive talks with Brussels, and everything went to the fact that the "deal" would be concluded, and the parties would part amicably. However, after three refusals by the British Parliament to accept the agreement reached by Theresa May, it became clear that the legislative machine has failed. Theresa May resigned, and there were immediate hopes that the situation would be resolved. After all, a new Prime Minister will come with new ideas. None of this happened. Boris Johnson arrived, who easily won the race for the prime minister's chair. And now, just a month after he took office, the parliament does not know how to remove him from this position. Johnson did nothing destructive. Just from the very first day of his term, he began to push through the "hard" Brexit scenario and prepare the country for such an outcome. And it is difficult to accuse him of lying, as the essence of his policy on Brexit was known to everyone, and during the elections, which lasted more than a month, and before the election. Purely "for a show", Johnson tried to negotiate with EU leaders, went to Germany and France, wrote a couple of letters to Donald Tusk. Naturally, he was refused by the European Union on his proposal to delete the item on "backstop" from the Brexit agreement and calmed down. In the face of the public, he tried to negotiate with the EU, but the Alliance refused to negotiate. Then frank blackmail began. Johnson said that Britain will refuse to pay 39 billion pounds for leaving the EU, and will pay only 9. Johnson's last action was to stop the parliament for 1 month. Meanwhile, the Conservatives, Labor and other parties are preparing to announce a vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister. Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn has been hatching the idea of declaring a vote for several weeks, but now that Johnson has begun to force things ahead of the curve, Corbyn has no choice but to organize parliamentary hearings as quickly as possible, in which he declares a vote of no confidence in Johnson. Announce and hope that most parliamentarians will support him. Indeed, already on the 9th, the parliament's work will be suspended, and there will be no chance to stop the "hard" Brexit.

And there are two possible scenarios:

• The British parliament will refuse to declare a vote of no confidence in Johnson or Corbyn for some reason does not initiate a vote on this issue, then most likely, that's all. Britain will leave the EU without agreement on October 31.

• The British Parliament will vote in a vote of no confidence, and then the fate of Boris Johnson will be in the hands of Boris Johnson because no one but himself can "fire" the Prime Minister. In theory, Elizabeth II has such rights, but in more than 70 years of rule, she never interfered with the work of the government.