17.09.201913:26 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Trading recommendations for the GBPUSD currency pair – placement of trade orders (September 17)

Over the past trading day, the pound/dollar currency pair showed high volatility of 104 points, resulting in a rollback process. From technical analysis, we see that the previously designated coordinates of 1.2500 still managed to play the role of a variable resistance level, stopping the quote and, as a fact, forming a working out in the form of a rollback. The overheating factor of long positions played a significant role, you just look at the Friday candle, 177 points directed exclusively in the upward direction. The pullback that we see is perhaps only a small part of the recovery since the movement can be even more interesting in terms of reduction.

As discussed in the previous review, traders worked on the breakdown of the boundaries of the 1.2300/1.2380 cluster, where this time everything went according to the right scenario. The upper limit was broken by a pulse jump, and the movement was preserved to the desired coordinate, that is, expectations coincided by 100%, taking profit as a fact and continuing to work at the recovery stage. Considering the trading chart in general terms (the daily period), we see that the theory of elongated correction is still preserved in the market, where the coordinates of 1.2500 while acting as resistance, at least in the original theory of the scope and range stay ironed in the values of 1.2500/1.2550. As you know, in the case of confirmation of the theory, the main downward trend has nowhere to go, it remains, having a slowdown phase, expressed in an elongated correction.

The news background of the last day was empty on all fronts, complete statistics were not published, which cannot be said about the information background. In terms of the next dismantling of the divorce proceedings, there was a meeting of the head of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. What was said and what was achieved? During the meeting, Boris Johnson, as always, said that he did not plan to ask for an extension from the EU and designated the meeting with the head of the EC as fruitful, although it was not like that. Jean-Claude Juncker himself described the meeting more soberly, calling it the culmination of a continental tragedy. The head of the European Commission said that the EU has not yet received proposals from the UK to reach an agreement on the terms of Britain's exit from the EU in the deal, which Brussels and London approved on November 25, 2018. At the same time, in an official statement, the European Commission emphasizes its readiness to work 24/7. Boris Johnson himself hastily left a press briefing with his Luxembourg counterpart Xavier Bettel because of the crowd of demonstrators, where in fact the Prime Minister was to speak to journalists after talks with Jean-Claude Juncker.

Based on all of the above, we see that the Brexit process is at an impasse, where there is simply no alternative to "backstop". With this development and even a possible delay, the English currency is not in a better position and the upward move that we saw earlier is like the convulsions of a dying man.

Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have only data on industrial production in the United States, where a slowdown from 0.5% to 0.2% is expected. Statistics can put pressure on the US dollar, but do not forget that tomorrow is a meeting of the Federal Committee on Open Market Operations, which may hold back everyone for a while.

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the rollback process has almost brought the quotation closer to the previously passed range accumulation of 1.2300 / 1.2380, showing some sluggish fluctuation. Speculators, in turn, are actively working on the recovery stage, even after the quote has found a resistance point in the face of the level of 1.2500. These positions were considered in terms of the return of quotes, which, in principle, happened, thus the main volume has already been fixed, the remaining part of the transaction hangs in terms of a moving stop.

It is likely to assume that the movement towards 1.2350 may still take place, but at the same time, I do not exclude that there may be stagnation within 1.2380/1.2450 due to the general market uncertainty that blows from the Brexit fields, and from the west – the Fed.

Based on the above information, we will derive trading recommendations:

• At the moment, we do not have a buy position, if we consider these positions, then only in the case of a clear stop or working out knowledge of 1.2350.

• We already have positions for sale, although the deals partially went to fixations. The outlook for the remainder lies at the level of 1.2350. Further operations should be considered after fixing the price lower than 1.2350.

Technical analysis

Analyzing different sector timeframes (TF), we see that the indicators in the short-term and intraday period tend to decrease due to the phase of the rollback. The medium-term outlook cannot move away from earlier impulse surges while maintaining an upward interest.

Volatility per week / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year.

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, calculated for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(September 17 was built taking into account the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 38 points, which is an extremely low value for this time section. It is likely to assume that volatility will still grow, but overcoming the framework of the average daily indicator is not yet visible in terms of supplying information and news background.

Key levels

Resistance zones: 1.2500 **; 1.2620; 1.2770 **; 1.2880 (1.2865-1.2880) **.

Support zones: 1.2350 **; 1.2150 **; 1,2000 ***; 1.1700; 1.1475 **.

* Periodic level

** Range level

*** The article is built on the principle of conducting a transaction, with daily adjustments.