29.10.201905:54 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Forecast for GBP/USD on October 29, 2019

GBP/USD

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson was once again defeated by Parliament - the EU agreed to extend Brexit until January 31, but Parliament voted against early elections. The Brexit situation finally became clear - the deal was, the pound closed the day with a moderate increase of 32 points. Investors can now focus on the Fed's policies and generally on US policy.

The Fed's rate cut at tomorrow's meeting, despite all the hype and market expectation of a 94% probability of this trim, is not so clear, as FOMC members have already expressed that the "low start" was too fast, its impact on the economy has not yet been assessed. Against this background, the recent increase in liquidity through REPO instruments may seem unnecessary, but since there have already been two reductions and a repo event, the third decrease can be postponed to December. In our opinion, this is the best option for maintaining stability in the markets - to declare a December decline without tomorrow's decline. As for the 95% expectation, which the Fed cannot ignore and "must meet", as it always has been, here we have the first rare exception - the nature or structure of the expectation is purely speculative, mainly created on the good performance of Services PMI on the 24th October and the miscalculation of the Fed itself, which failed to maintain communication with the markets.

On the technical side, we see a falling Marlin indicator, two-day trading in the range of Fibonacci levels of 110.0% -100.0%, that is, the market's readiness to decline rather than grow.

On a four-hour chart, the price is developing under the indicator lines of balance and MACD, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator moves along the boundary dividing the growth zone from the declining trend zone. The main scenario is to pull down the pound to 1.2744 with an attempt to consolidate below it.