14.04.202002:05 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Overview of the EUR/USD pair. April 14. The US quarantine will begin to be lifted in May. Three out of 70 vaccines have been tested in humans. The deadline for completing the creation of the vaccine is at least a year

4-hour timeframe

Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 40.6631

For the second trading day of the week, the euro/dollar pair started with a downward correction, which has every chance to end near the moving average line. A price rebound from the moving average may trigger a resumption of the upward movement. We still believe that the "correction against correction" option continues to be executed and the euro currency will resume its growth to the psychological level of 1.1000. However, if traders manage to gain a foothold below the moving average, the trend will change to a downward trend and short positions will become relevant.

At a time when almost nothing is happening on the market, and the calendar of macroeconomic statistics looks like the image of the steppe from American westerns with tumbleweeds, we suggest that we once again focus all our attention on the number one topic of importance for the whole world - "coronavirus". Unfortunately, there is very little positive news on this topic. For example, in the United States, the COVID-2019 virus has already killed more than 22,000 people, and the country's chief infectious disease specialist, Anthony Fauci, said that if the authorities had started quarantining earlier, many victims could have been avoided. He also said that a second wave of the epidemic is possible in the fall or winter of 2020, which threatens the country's presidential elections, since many voters simply will not want or will not be able to come to the polls. However, the elections are still far away. Andrew Cuomo, the Governor of New York state, the most affected by the pandemic, said that the number of new cases of "coronavirus" infection continues to decline, but it is too early to talk about a possible easing of quarantine measures. However, across the country, that is, in most states, the quarantine restrictions may begin to be lifted in early May. This was also reported by the director of the Institute of Infectious Diseases, Dr. Fauci. He believes that only at the end of April, when, according to experts' estimates, the "peak" of the outbreak will be passed, it will be possible to assess the situation in the country and only depending on the results it will be possible to decide on easing some of the quarantine measures. Different decisions will be made in different states of the country, but still, the economy may start to revive in the fifth month of the year – May. At the same time, Dr. Fauci warns that the risk of a new coronavirus outbreak is extremely high if the US government hurries to lift the quarantine. The chief infectious disease specialist believes that all business activities will not be able to start at the click of a toggle switch, so in any case, a gradual and careful exit from the quarantine is necessary. However, according to Fauci, people will still continue to get infected with the new virus until a vaccine is invented.

Approximately the same opinion is held by specialists of the WHO, which was recently criticized by Donald Trump, threatening to stop funding. David Nabarro, a spokesman for the WHO director for the coronavirus pandemic, said: "We are not sure that this coronavirus will pass in waves, as it does with the flu. We think that the virus will haunt humanity for quite a long time until a vaccine is invented that will protect us." Nabarro also noted that there are signs that the spread of the virus is slowing in Europe and the United States, but in other parts of the world, the COVID-2019 virus is spreading at the same rate.

At the same time, work on a vaccine against the COVID-2019 virus continues in many countries around the world. We have already discussed the developments and discoveries of Australian and Turkish scientists. Today, it became known that China is beginning to conduct clinical trials of a vaccine against coronavirus. It is reported that this vaccine will be the third in the world that has entered the testing stage. However, it is not only China or the United States that are concerned about creating a vaccine. According to WHO, the process of creating a vaccine is proceeding at a very high speed. All drug manufacturers are trying to invent a vaccine. At the moment, there are already 70 types of vaccines, three of which are being tested on humans. The most advanced vaccine is the Chinese one mentioned above, developed by CanSino Biologics Inc and the Beijing Institute of Biotechnology. It is also noted that the process of creating a vaccine is being accelerated by all pharmaceutical companies since it is already obvious that it will not be possible to defeat the virus by quarantine measures alone. It will come back again and again. Thus, the pharmaceutical industry wants to achieve unprecedented results and create a vaccine in one year. WHO, in turn, believes that the virus will return and return until all or most of humanity is vaccinated.

Meanwhile, Bill Gates, an American billionaire and philanthropist, said the coronavirus vaccine could be created in one year. However, in order to start mass production of the drug, you may need to relax the usual safety check procedures. The Bill Gates Foundation and his wife also began financing the American company Inovio to begin clinical trials of the American version of the vaccine. Bill Gates himself recalls that back in 2015 he warned of the possibility of a global epidemic. Now, according to the founder of Microsoft, humanity can greatly regret that it did not invest enough money in the healthcare sector, and especially in the fight against epidemics.

At the same time, Germany offers the most radical methods of fighting the "coronavirus". For example, German epidemiologist Alexander Kekule believes that young people and children should be taken out of quarantine and let them get infected. According to Kekule, according to the most optimistic calculations, the vaccine will appear in a period of six months to a year. Until the vaccine is available, the quarantine measures cannot be maintained, otherwise, the economy may collapse completely. Instead, the German doctor offers an option with the development of immunity in people under 50 years of age. According to Kekule, those who are less than 50 years old are unlikely to get sick or die from the "coronavirus". Older people should be protected and isolated at home. In Germany, the most common view is that in order to defeat the pandemic, it is necessary to develop a so-called collective immunity. Thus, approximately 70% of the population needs to be infected. Chinese scientists also pay attention to the fact that people discharged from hospitals form too few antibodies to speak about the formation of a stable immunity against the virus. And this symptom is considered very important by Chinese scientists. Since if the "coronavirus" itself could not cause the production of enough antibodies, then the vaccine may not achieve the desired effect.

The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair continues to decline and is already 87 points as of April 14. Thus, the markets continue to calm down and return to normal. Today, another decrease in volatility is possible due to an empty news calendar. We expect the price to move between the levels of 1.0836 and 1.1010 on April 14. Turning the Heiken Ashi indicator upward will indicate the end of the downward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.0864

S2 - 1.0742

S3 - 1.0620

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.0986

R2 - 1.1108

R3 - 1.1230

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair has started a corrective movement. Thus, traders are now recommended to consider purchase orders with the goals of the Murray level of "2/8"-1.0986 and 1.1010, after the price rebounds from the moving average. It is recommended to sell the euro/dollar pair not before fixing the price below the moving target of 1.0864 and 1.0836.