21.04.202006:48 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: GBP/USD: plan for the European session on April 21. COT reports indicate a clear lack of willingness to trade the pound. Bears seek breakout 1.2408

To open long positions on GBPUSD, you need:

The pound continues to remain under pressure as the pandemic crisis worsens in the absence of any new actions from the Bank of England, and the bears are trying to gain a foothold below the important level of 1.2408, which only raises the pressure on the pair. In the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for April 14, there is still no desire for traders to go to the current market and take any action with the pound, as can be seen on the chart. There was a decrease in both long and short positions. According to the data, during the reporting week, there was a decrease in short non-commercial positions from the level of 27,561 to 27,055, while long non-commercial positions also fell from the level of 31,254 to 30,287. As a result, the non-commercial net position also fell from the level of 3,693 to 3,232, gradually returning to its zero value, which could become a tipping point for the upward correction of the pound in the short term. Today there are important reports on the state of the UK labor market, but the data is for February which will not affect the market as much, provided that the reports coincide with the forecasts of economists. The bulls missed a very important resistance of 1.2408 today in the Asian session and will now try their best to return to it. Consolidating on this range in the first half of the day will allow you to count on a quick return of GBP/USD to the middle of the side channel 1.2462 and on updating the high of 1.2512, where I recommend taking profits. If the pressure on the pair persists after the reports, you can look at long positions on the pound only after a test of the low of 1.2358, or buy immediately on the rebound from the support of 1.2294, with the aim of correcting 40-50 points within the day.

To open short positions on GBPUSD, you need:

Sellers of the pound have achieved a breakout of the support of 1.2408, which acts as the lower border of the side channel, and while trading will be conducted below this range, we can expect a further decline in GBP/USD. Forming a false breakout at this level will be an additional signal to open short positions while expecting to update the lows of 1.2358 and 1.2294, where I recommend taking profits. In case the pair grows above the resistance of 1.2408 in the first half of the day, it is best to return to short positions on the rebound from the middle of the side channel of 1.2462, or even higher, immediately from the upper border of 1.2512.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted below 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates that the downward trend in the pound can continue.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

If the pound rises in the first half of the day, the upper border of the indicator at 1.2480 will act as resistance, from where you can sell immediately for a rebound.

Description of indicators

• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - Moving Average Convergence / Divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
• Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
• Non-profit traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
• Long nonprofit positions represent the total long open position of nonprofit traders.
• Short nonprofit positions represent the total short open position of nonprofit traders.
• The total non-profit net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-profit traders.