09.06.202009:05 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: GBP/USD: plan for the European session on June 9. COT reports (analysis of yesterday's deals). Sharp rise in short positions on the pound could end the bullish market

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

The bears made an attempt to resume the downward correction yesterday, but failed to gain a foothold below the support of 1.2657. If you look at the 5-minute chart, I mentioned in yesterday's review that a return to the level of 1.2657 will be a signal to open long positions in the pound, which happened. As a result of this, the pair returned to its weekly highs and even updated them, however, it was also not possible to stay above resistance 1.2729. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for June 2, which clearly shows a change in market sentiment, recorded a sharp decline in long positions. As for sellers, they continued to increase their presence in the market. This alignment indicates profit taking on long positions at current market levels and a gradual increase in fears associated with the lack of progress in trade negotiations between the UK and the EU. The COT report states that short non-profit positions increased from 61,449 to 63,014 during the week, while long non-profit positions fell sharply from 39,192 to 26,970. As a result, the non-profit net position became even more negative and turned out to be at the level of -36,044 against -22,257, which indicates a slowing of the short-term bullish momentum and it is very likely that a large downward correction would form by the middle of the month. As for the intraday strategy, it has not changed much compared to yesterday. Pound buyers can now see resistance at 1.2729, consolidating on it will be a clear signal for continuing the bullish trend with the renewal of new highs in the areas of 1.2798 and 1.2840, where I recommend taking profits. In case GBP/USD falls in the morning, buyers will count on the support of 1.2657 and also forming a false breakout there, similar to yesterday. If there are no active purchases in this range, it is best to postpone long positions until the test of lows of 1.2581 and 1.2500, based on an upward correction of 30-40 points within the day.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

So far, sellers are trying to approach large levels of resistance every time, and the pair's return to resistance 1.2729 in the Asian session, which the bulls tried to win back, is already a definite advantage. The bears' task in the first half of the day is to not let the bulls go above resistance 1.2729, where forming a false breakout will be a clear signal for opening short positions. This will cause GBP/USD to return to a rather interesting support level of 1.2657. Consolidating below this range will increase the pressure on the pair and lead to dismantling the bulls' stop orders and a larger movement for the pound to form a correction in order to test support at 1.2581 and 1.2500, where I recommend taking profit. When breaking through resistance 1.2729, it is best to abandon short positions to test a high of 1.2798 or sell GBP/USD immediately to rebound from a larger resistance 1.2840 based on a downward movement of 30-40 points by the end of the day.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is slightly above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a possible slowdown in the bull market in the short term.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

Growth will be limited by the upper level of the indicator at 1.2729, the break of which will lead to a new bullish momentum. A break of the lower border of the indicator in the region of 1.2670 will increase the pressure on the pair.

Description of indicators

• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - Moving Average Convergence / Divergence). Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9.
• Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
• Non-profit traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
• Long nonprofit positions represent the total long open position of nonprofit traders.
• Short nonprofit positions represent the total short open position of nonprofit traders.
• The total non-profit net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-profit traders.