22.06.202002:13 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Overview of the GBP/USD pair. June 22. In focus: US GDP for the first quarter and orders for durable goods. In the UK, the "calm news" continues.

4-hour timeframe

Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -167.9343

The British pound has also been trading lower over the past week, but unlike the euro, it has fallen much more. However, we have repeatedly said that if the euro currency had at least some grounds for growth, the pound did not have any. We have already listed the reasons hundreds of times, and they remain unchanged. Thus, the current fall in the British currency does not cause any surprise. The only question is, to what levels are traders now ready to sell the pound? At the moment, it looks as if the pound/dollar pair is aiming for the level of 1.2080, which is the latest local low. However, we'll see. As in the case of the euro currency, we recommend paying more attention to the technical picture and not trying to catch the pair's reversals using fundamental analysis and macroeconomic events.

Nothing interesting has happened in the UK in recent days. Everything is quiet and calm, and the whole country seems to be waiting for the next stage of Brexit negotiations, which should this time be personally conducted by Boris Johnson with Ursula von der Leyen and other leaders of the European Union. However, so far Johnson has not flown to Brussels and it is unclear when he is going to do so. Earlier it was reported that the British Prime Minister is preparing to visit the legal capital of the EU in the second half of June. Well, all the economic news in the Foggy Albion is now the same as in the rest of the world. The economy continues to shrink, macroeconomic indicators continue to fall, the "coronavirus" seems to have been stopped, but new cases of the disease are still recorded, just in smaller volumes than before.

While the UK is "sleeping", the United States is burning with "news fire". On June 20, US President Donald Trump officially held his first campaign rally in Tulsa (Oklahoma). According to media reports, this rally was attended by a much smaller number of people than the organizers expected. Moreover, health professionals warned the American President of the danger of such a step, which did not stop Trump from holding a mass gathering of people to increase his popularity. In a typical style, Trump called people who participate in rallies (related to the death of George Floyd) "bad people who destroy history and beautiful monuments (meaning the destruction of some monuments by protesters)". Interestingly, on the eve of this event, 352 new cases of "coronavirus" were registered in Tulsa, and the gathering of a large number of people can lead to a new outbreak. Later it became known that 6 employees of the Trump election committee were infected with the virus, and at the entrance to the rally itself, all citizens were given a paper to sign, in which they refused to sue the American leader if they became infected. It should also be noted that most of the audience of Trump's speech was without medical masks, as, in fact, the president himself. The essence of the speech of the US leader did not cause any questions and it was quite possible not to go to the rally at all since Trump broadcasts the same thing from TV screens every day. As usual, the head of the White House attacked Joe Biden, the Democrats, the "enemy media" and called on all his supporters to fight back against the enemies. The rally ended with the following statement from Trump: "I did a phenomenal job. I saved hundreds of thousands of lives!"

For the pound/dollar currency pair, this week will also not be too interesting, although we should note a few events. No publications are scheduled for Monday in either the United States or the UK. On Tuesday, the UK will release business activity indices in the services and manufacturing sectors, which, like the European ones, may be significantly higher than the values of the previous month, but still below the level of 50.0. Similar indices will be published overseas. Wednesday is a day off in the United States and Britain, according to the calendar of macroeconomic events. On Thursday, a fairly large amount of information will be received from overseas, among which we highlight the report on orders for durable goods, which in the last two months showed the strongest reductions, but in May will begin to increase (according to forecasts). Also on this day, the US GDP for the first quarter, which is projected at -5%, will be known, as well as the next report on applications for unemployment benefits, which has already ceased to worry market participants. By the way, traders are also ready for -5% of GDP for a long time, so the main thing for the US currency is that the real value is not worse than minus 5%. On the last trading day of the week in America, reports are scheduled on changes in the volume of personal income and spending of the American population, which have recently been "jumping" up and down and also do not cause much interest among market participants. As you might guess, there are no scheduled reports or events in Albion this week.

Thus, we expect at least some correction of the pair in the new week. Since last Tuesday, the pound has lost more than 300 points and there has been no hint of a correction. However, at the same time, traders can continue to sell off the pound, since before that it showed almost the same non-recoilless growth for more than two weeks in a row. We expect to see the exchange rate in the area of $ 1.20 - $ 1.22 this week.

The average volatility of the pound/dollar pair continues to remain stable and is currently 129 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this indicator is "high". On Monday, June 22, thus, we expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2215 and 1.2473. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator upward will indicate a possible round of corrective movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2329

S2 – 1.2268

S3 – 1.2207

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2390

R2 – 1.2451

R3 – 1.2512

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair continues its downward movement on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, today it is recommended to continue trading the pound/dollar pair for a decrease with the goals of 1.2268 and 1.2215. It is recommended to buy the pound/dollar pair not earlier than fixing quotes above the moving average with the first goals of 1.2573 and 1.2634.