02.07.202006:30 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: EUR/USD: plan for the European session on July 2 (analysis of yesterday's trade). Euro bulls actively gaining ground. COT reports. Breakout of 1.1286 is required for growth

To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Data that was released in the afternoon on the growth of activity in the US manufacturing sector provided similar support to the European currency, as the report on consumer confidence in the America was released a day earlier. This once again indicates a huge desire of investors to take risks, if only there was a reason for it. If you look at the 5-minute chart and remember my forecast for the second half of yesterday, you will see how the bulls formed another false breakout from the support level of 1.1193, from which it was necessary to open long positions. Buyers easily passed the resistance of 1.1241, having consolidated on it today in the Asian session. A repeated test of this range in the first half of the day and also forming a false breakout there will be a signal to open long positions in the hopes of continuing to strengthen the pair to the week's high in the area of 1.1286, where I recommend taking profits. The high of 1.1325 is a long-term goal, but its update will depend on what data will be released today on the US labor market and the unemployment rate. The reports will come out a day earlier since the United States will be celebrating Independence Day tomorrow. Improved indicators will definitely support the euro again. If the pressure on the euro returns in the first half of the day, and the bulls do not show activity in the support area of 1.1241, it is best to wait for another decline to the area of 1.1193 and buy EUR/USD there immediately for a rebound while expecting a correction of 25-30 points within the day. Let me remind you that there are some changes that could affect the growth prospects of the European currency in the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for June 23. A growth in long positions was recorded a week earlier, but the growth of short positions was also noted, which indicates a possible slowdown in the bullish momentum in the short term. The report shows an increase in short non-commercial positions from the level of 69,988 to the level of 72,368, while long non-commercial positions also slightly increased from the level of 187,120 to the level of 190,816. As a result, the positive non-commercial net position increased again to 118,448, against 117,132, which indicates a slight slowdown in the growth of interest in buying risky assets at current prices.

To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Euro sellers will be waiting for weak data on producer prices in the eurozone and on the unemployment rate, which economists forecast should rise to 7.6%. However, only a return to the support area of 1.1241, which is a kind of middle of the side channel this week, and a consolidation under it will be a signal to open short positions. This scenario will lead to a repeated decline in EUR/USD to the low of 1.1193, the next test of which will raise the pressure on the euro and pull down the pair to the lows of 1.1155 and 1.1106, where I recommend taking profits. If the bears are not active in the 1.1241 area, it is best to postpone short positions until the upper limit of the 1.1286 channel is updated, which buyers are currently aiming for. However, larger players will return to the market from the high of 1.1325, the test of which can lead to a downward correction of EUR/USD of 25-30 points within the day.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 moving averages, but it is too early to talk about a complete victory for Euro buyers.

Note: the period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart (H1) and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart (D1).

Bollinger Bands

Breaking the upper limit of the indicator around 1.1285 will lead to a new wave of euro growth. In case of a decline, purchases can be seen from the lower border of the indicator in the area of 1.1205.

Description of indicators

• Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
• Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
• Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
• Non-commercial traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.