03.08.202009:09 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: GBP/USD: plan for the European session on August 3. Pressure on the pound has returned, but there is no particular desire to sell even at these highs. Bulls will try to return 1.3100

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

The pressure on the British pound returned on Friday, but this did not lead to a serious sale. Several signals formed to enter the market. Let's break them down on a 5 minute chart. You can clearly see how bears formed a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.3138 in the first half of the day, forming a good entry point into short positions, which does not lead to the expected result. Then the bulls also formed an entry point into long positions. However, even here, the upward movement of more than 30 points does not work. At the moment, buyers of the pound will be focused on the resistance of 1.3100, which they need to return to maintain the bullish trend. The return and consolidation at this level, along with good data on manufacturing activity in the UK, form a good signal to buy the pound. The goal of the movement will be to update the previous week's high at 1.3165, as well as to consolidate above it. This scenario will lead to the demolition of the bears' stop orders and to a larger strengthening of the GBP/USD to the highs of 1.3228 and 1.3265, where I recommend taking profits. In case the pound falls in the first half of the day, it is best not to rush to open long positions, but wait for a false breakout to form in the support area of 1.3023. Buy GBP/USD immediately on the rebound, I recommend only from the low of 1.2949 based on a correction of 30-40 points within the day.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Sellers of the pound need to protect the resistance of 1.3100, since forming a false breakout there will be the first signal for a possible downward correction of the pair to the support area of 1.3023. An equally important task is to break through and consolidate under this range, which will lead to the demolition of a number of bull stop orders and a larger decline in GBP/USD to the support area of 1.3949, where I recommend taking profits. If bears are not active in the 1.3100 resistance area, it is best to postpone short positions until the test of last week's high in the 1.3165 area, provided that a false breakout is formed there. Or sell the pound immediately on a rebound from the larger resistance of 1.3228 based on a correction of 30-40 points within the day.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out in the area of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a pause in the continuation of the bull market.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

Growth will be limited by the upper level of the indicator in the area of 1.3165. A break of the lower border at 1.3060 will increase pressure on the pound.

Description of indicators

• Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
• Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
• The MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages). Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. The 9 period SMA.
• Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). The period 20.
• Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.