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EUR/USD is trading above the 21 SMA and above the 2/8 Murray around 1.0986, having reached an intraday high of 1.1019 amid improving risk sentiment and a sharp drop in gold.
Upside potential remains limited, based on technical readings on the daily chart. However, in the 4-hour chart, the picture changes as the formation of a bullish pennant pattern is underway.
Confirmation of this pattern is given, but the Euro needs strength to push it to reach its target at 1.1165 and could cover the GAP at 1.1269.
Today, the two-day meeting of the Federal Reserve will begin. The decision will be announced on Wednesday and a rise in the reference interest rate of 0.25 basis points is widely expected.
An increase of 0.50 basis points could weaken the Euro and cause its fall towards the support of 1.08. On the other hand, if the decision is unveiled as the market expects, then the Euro could gain strength and rise towards 4/8 Murray at 1.1230 and even cover the GAP that it left on February 25 at 1.1270.
Our trading plan for the next few hours is to buy the Euro as long as it remains trading above the 21 SMA located at 1.0970.
Should there be a correction, as long as it remains above the low this week (1.0900), it is likely that the Euro is preparing for a bullish push in line with the technical pattern.
The eagle indicator is giving a positive signal but approaching overbought levels.
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