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EUR/USD 15M
Both linear regression channels are still directed to the downside on the 15-minute timeframe, but their slope angle has greatly decreased. Thus, in the most short-term plan, the downward trend is still present and there is still no sign of starting an upward correction. The lower channel is completely turned sideways.
EUR/USD 1H
The EUR/USD pair stopped on the hourly timeframe on Tuesday, January 12. It just stopped after a three-day drop. The quotes moved along the support level of 1.2158 throughout the day, as if hinting at this level's weakness and the fact that the downward movement did not stop because of it. It is quite logical that traders needed a short pause after several days of downward movement. Volatility could resume today, at a time when interesting macroeconomic events in both the European Union and the United States will be released. We are interested in the pair's prospects in the coming days. The downward trend continues as long as the pair's quotes remain within the descending channel. Therefore, you should consider bearish trading. It is embarrassing that traders did not spend the previous day on an upward correction, which would be quite logical. In any case, rebounding from the upper line of the descending channel can provoke a new round of downward movement. Buyers' interests are above the descending channel, and you shouldn't trade for an increase before leaving it.
COT report
The EUR/USD pair increased by 55 points during the last reporting week (December 29-January 4). Again, minimal price changes, however, the pair has been steadily rising in recent weeks, but at a slow pace. The upward trend remains strong and stable despite the fact that the pair rises or falls by no more than 100 points every week. However, the changes shown in the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report are also minimal. A group of non-commercial traders opened 2,000 Buy-contracts (longs) and 3,000 Sell-contracts (shorts) during the reporting week. Thus, the net position has formally decreased, and professional traders have become more bearish. However, this is only formally, because non-commercial traders have opened more than 340,000 contracts. Thus, opening/closing 2-3,000 contracts is nothing, a mere drop in the ocean. Moreover, strengthening the bearish sentiment does not mean much, because the COT reports signal the demand for the euro. They don't take into account the demand for the US dollar. When the net position was steadily decreasing (as seen in the second indicator) several months ago, the demand for the euro decreased among large traders. However, we do not exclude the fact that the demand for the dollar also decreased at the same time, therefore, with a visible drop in the interest of large traders in the euro, the single currency grew anyway. An unpleasant moment. In the past few weeks, the changes in the COT reports are such that no conclusions can be drawn at all. If earlier the green and red lines of the first indicator converged or diverged, now they are simply directed sideways, signaling the absence of changes.
Not a single important macroeconomic report from the European Union or the United States on Tuesday. However, if we forget the fact that the markets have been ignoring 90% of fundamental data for almost a year now, then everything is logical. No important news and reports yesterday, therefore volatility was almost at a zero. As before, the market is focused on the United States, where a new political crisis or political scandal is developing. You can call it whatever you like. At first, the US dollar even rose in price, as if rejoicing that Trump would soon step down, and possibly also with impeachment. However, the dollar's joy ended yesterday. In any case, you should be aware of what is happening in US politics.
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is set to speak today. This will happen early in the morning, and this event cannot be called insignificant. The question is, what will Lagarde be talking about? If it's about monetary policy and economics, then the markets can respond to it. If about cryptocurrencies and other things, then her speech will be ignored. The EU will also publish a report on industrial production for November. However, this report has ceased to be important for market participants in the last six months or a year.
We have two trading ideas for January 13:
1) Buyers are resting, waiting for the bears to get enough. You can consider options for opening new long positions when the price has settled above the descending channel. At the moment, the targets will be the Kijun-sen (1.2241) and Senkou Span B (1.2263) lines. Take Profit in this case can be up to 60 points.
2) Bears have grown stronger in recent days, but they also need a little respite. Thus, short positions can be held open while aiming for the 1.2097 support level. Take Profit in this case can be up to 60 points. You are advised to open new shorts after a rebound from the upper channel line or the Kijun-sen line (1.2241).
Forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD
Explanations for illustrations:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the "non-commercial" group.
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