01.02.202112:59 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: EUR/USD: COVID-19 continues to force EU countries to close borders

Despite the arrival of many vaccines, COVID-19 continues to terrorize the world.

To date, the total number of cases is nearing 103 million, and this is only according to official reports. Most of the infected, as before, are in the United States, but Europe is not lagging behind, based on general indicators.

And because of this, many EU countries are forced to close borders in an attempt to somehow reduce the rate of new infections.

For example, Germany has tightened sanitary measures and there are new rules regarding the procedure for the entry of foreign citizens who do not have a residence permit in Germany. France followed a similar path, closing its borders from February 1. In particular, to all arriving from outside the EU.

Aside from that, French authorities announced on January 24 that they are planning to introduce a third lockdown to help prevent the spread of the coronavirus.

Clearly, many countries are trying to alleviate the current epidemiological situation, so there is a high chance that these restrictive measures will remain for quite a long time.

In this regard, economic recovery will certainly become W-shaped instead of the expected V-shaped.

Meanwhile, what happened on the trading chart?

EUR / USD continues to fluctuate around 1.2050 / 1.2190, during which a "Head and Shoulders" pattern has formed in the trading chart. Aside from that, the currency has been overbought for quite a long time already, even if the quote pulled back to 1.2349 earlier.

Taking this into account, market players are hoping that keeping the price lower than 1.2050 will distribute trading forces towards sellers, as such will lead to a decline towards 1.1810.

However, it is clear that market dynamics are not cooperating, since volatility is below the average daily level and speculative activity, although periodically appears in the market, does not last as long as we would like.

At the same time, price has already reached 2018's high in the daily chart, but around which a reversal occurred last time.

Outlook for EUR / USD

Assuming that the quote is heading towards a correction, there is a chance that EUR / USD will decline, which is what many players are hoping for.

In fact, bears will surely hold the price below 1.2050 in the H4 chart, hoping for a decline towards 1.1810

But there is also a chance that the bullish trend will continue, and the current "head and shoulders" pattern will transform into a wide flat. This scenario, in the absence of fundamental circumstances, will only aggravate the euro's situation.

Indicator analysis

Analyzing the different timeframes (TF), it is clear that the minute and hourly charts signal SELL due to the movement from the upper border of the range to the lower one, while, the daily chart, as before, is signaling sell because of the correction.

Weekly volatility / Volatility measurement: Month; Quarter; Year

Volatility is measured relative to the average daily fluctuations, which are calculated every Month / Quarter / Year.

(The dynamics for today is calculated, all while taking into account the time this article is published)

Volatility is currently at 35 points, which is 31% lower than the average level. However, at the same time, speculative operations have grown rather sharply, and this is confirmed by the candles in the market.

Key levels

Resistance zones: 1.2190 *; 1.2350 **; 1.2450 **; 1.2550 ***; 1.2825.

Support zones: 1.2050 *; 1.2000 ***; 1.1890-1.1900-1.1920 **; 1.1810 *.

* Periodic level

** Range level

*** Psychological level